Rot-Weiß Essen
vs
SSV Jahn Regensburg
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Rot-Weiß Essen 2–1 SSV Jahn Regensburg
The model makes it 53% Rot-Weiß Essen, 25% draw, 22% SSV Jahn Regensburg — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rot-Weiß Essen 1.91, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.05.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Rot-Weiß Essen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rot-Weiß Essen are 3rd on 18 points from 9 games; SSV Jahn Regensburg are 15th on 8 points from 8 games — 3. Liga.
- Rot-Weiß Essen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Fortuna Köln.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Havelse.
- Last 4 meetings: Rot-Weiß Essen 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Rot-Weiß Essen 3–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rot-Weiß Essen at 53% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
Rot-Weiß Essen
- W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026
- D3-3away to Preußen Münster9 October 2026
- D1-1Hansa Rostock20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Waldhof Mannheim16 September 2026
- W6-2Würzburger Kickers12 September 2026
SSV Jahn Regensburg
- W5-0Havelse10 October 2026
- D3-3away to Stuttgart II19 September 2026
- L1-2Fortuna Düsseldorf15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Alemannia Aachen12 September 2026
- L1-2MSV Duisburg5 September 2026
What these results say
- Rot-Weiß Essen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rot-Weiß Essen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rot-Weiß Essen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for SSV Jahn Regensburg had three goals or more.
- SSV Jahn Regensburg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 18 |
| 15 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rot-Weiß Essen
Chance to finish in the top four · 62% today
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rot-Weiß Essen vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
- 14 February 2026Rot-Weiß Essen 3–2 SSV Jahn Regensburg3. Liga
- 12 September 2025SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–3 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
- 10 February 2024Jahn Regensburg 1–3 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
- 16 September 2023Rot-Weiß Essen 0–0 Jahn Regensburg3. Liga
The two sides
Rot-Weiß Essen carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.26 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 1.05 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rot-Weiß Essen rate 0.61 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SSV Jahn Regensburg rate 0.59 and 1.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rot-Weiß Essen a 16.1% chance of the title and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rot-Weiß Essen the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen against 1.05 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Rot-Weiß Essen's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.92 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rot-Weiß Essen at home · SSV Jahn Regensburg away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Rot-Weiß Essen 9, SSV Jahn Regensburg 8.
Rot-Weiß Essen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); SSV Jahn Regensburg have let in 5 there.
SSV Jahn Regensburg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Rot-Weiß Essen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Rot-Weiß Essen
- vs RB Leipzig27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 13%
- at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1 Nov · 3. Ligawin 49%
- vs Alemannia Aachen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 48%
- at Verl21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 32%
- vs Hoffenheim II28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 56%
SSV Jahn Regensburg
- vs Hansa Rostock31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 43%
- at SV Meppen8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 34%
- vs Würzburger Kickers21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.