Alemannia Aachen
vs
Preußen Münster
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Alemannia Aachen 2–1 Preußen Münster
The model makes it 44% Alemannia Aachen, 27% draw, 29% Preußen Münster — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Alemannia Aachen 1.64, Preußen Münster 1.25.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Alemannia Aachen are 7th on 14 points from 10 games; Preußen Münster are 12th on 12 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- Alemannia Aachen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Hansa Rostock.
- Preußen Münster have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.
- Last 6 meetings: Preußen Münster 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 February 2023, ended Preussen Munster 4–0 Alemannia Aachen.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alemannia Aachen vs Preußen Münster
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alemannia Aachen at 44% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Alemannia Aachen vs Preußen Münster
Alemannia Aachen
- W2-0Hansa Rostock17 October 2026
- L0-3away to SV Wehen14 October 2026
- L2-5FC Viktoria Köln11 October 2026
- W1-0Fortuna Düsseldorf19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Würzburger Kickers15 September 2026
Preußen Münster
- L2-3away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach17 October 2026
- L1-2Fortuna Düsseldorf14 October 2026
- D3-3Rot-Weiß Essen9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Waldhof Mannheim20 September 2026
- D3-3FC Saarbrücken16 September 2026
What these results say
- Preußen Münster did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Preußen Münster conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Preußen Münster scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Preußen Münster | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alemannia Aachen vs Preußen Münster
- 5 February 2023Preussen Munster 4–0 Alemannia AachenRegionalliga - West
- 24 September 2022Alemannia Aachen 4–2 Preussen MunsterRegionalliga - West
- 11 December 2021Alemannia Aachen 0–2 Preussen MunsterRegionalliga - West
- 14 August 2021Preussen Munster 2–1 Alemannia AachenRegionalliga - West
- 3 March 2021Alemannia Aachen 1–4 Preussen MunsterRegionalliga - West
- 16 December 2020Preussen Munster 1–0 Alemannia AachenRegionalliga - West
Leading scorers: Alemannia Aachen and Preußen Münster
Alemannia Aachen
GoalsAssists
- L. Scepanik20
Preußen Münster
GoalsAssists
- F. Higl11
- Montell Ndikom11
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Alemannia Aachen carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.34 for Preußen Münster. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Alemannia Aachen and 1.25 for Preußen Münster. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alemannia Aachen rate 0.61 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Preußen Münster rate 0.59 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alemannia Aachen a 1.8% chance of the title and Preußen Münster 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,980 correct results out of 4,126 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alemannia Aachen the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Alemannia Aachen against 1.25 for Preußen Münster. Alemannia Aachen's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.65 for Preußen Münster.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alemannia Aachen at home · Preußen Münster away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Alemannia Aachen 10, Preußen Münster 10.
Alemannia Aachen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Preußen Münster have let in 5 there.
Preußen Münster score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Alemannia Aachen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Alemannia Aachen
- at Rot-Weiß Essen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 25%
- vs Waldhof Mannheim21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 55%
- at FC Saarbrücken28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 31%
- vs Havelse5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 65%
Preußen Münster
- vs MSV Duisburg7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 39%
- at Hoffenheim II21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
- vs Verl28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 46%
- at SSV Jahn Regensburg5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.