SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
vs
Rot-Weiß Essen
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–1 Rot-Weiß Essen
The model makes it 27% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, 28% draw, 45% Rot-Weiß Essen — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.06, Rot-Weiß Essen 1.55.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Rot-Weiß Essen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are 15th on 12 points from 10 games; Rot-Weiß Essen are 3rd on 18 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Preußen Münster.
- Rot-Weiß Essen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC Ingolstadt 04.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rot-Weiß Essen at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Rot-Weiß Essen
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- W3-2Preußen Münster17 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Viktoria Köln14 October 2026
- L1-5Waldhof Mannheim10 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Saarbrücken19 September 2026
- D1-1Verl15 September 2026
Rot-Weiß Essen
- L0-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0417 October 2026
- W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026
- D3-3away to Preußen Münster9 October 2026
- D1-1Hansa Rostock20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Waldhof Mannheim16 September 2026
What these results say
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.
- Rot-Weiß Essen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rot-Weiß Essen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 12 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and Rot-Weiß Essen
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
GoalsAssists
- F. Eisele11
Rot-Weiß Essen
GoalsAssists
- M. Janssen20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.41 for Rot-Weiß Essen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.06 goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.55 for Rot-Weiß Essen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach rate 0.44 in attack and 2.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rot-Weiß Essen rate 0.61 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach a 0% chance of the title and Rot-Weiß Essen 9.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rot-Weiß Essen the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach against 1.55 for Rot-Weiß Essen. SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.48 for Rot-Weiß Essen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at home · Rot-Weiß Essen away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 10, Rot-Weiß Essen 10.
Rot-Weiß Essen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- at Hansa Rostock7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 19%
- at Fortuna Düsseldorf21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 16%
- vs MSV Duisburg28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 25%
- at Stuttgart II5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 23%
Rot-Weiß Essen
- vs Alemannia Aachen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 49%
- at Verl21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 33%
- vs Hoffenheim II28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 55%
- at SV Meppen5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.