Gaziantep FK
vs
Kasımpaşa
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Gaziantep FK 0–1 Kasımpaşa
The model makes it 34% Gaziantep FK, 28% draw, 38% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Gaziantep FK 1.26, Kasımpaşa 1.39.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 939 settled matches.
Edge to Kasımpaşa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Gaziantep FK's rating is built from 42 Süper Lig matches and Kasımpaşa's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 720 matches.
Key facts
- Gaziantep FK are 14th on 8 points from 8 games; Kasımpaşa are 7th on 13 points from 8 games — Süper Lig.
- Gaziantep FK are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Başakşehir.
- Kasımpaşa have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Samsunspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Gaziantep FK 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 February 2026, ended Gaziantep FK 2–1 Kasımpaşa.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kasımpaşa at 38% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa
Gaziantep FK
Süper Lig
- L1-2away to Başakşehir18 October 2026
- L0-3Çorum FK11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Kocaelispor19 September 2026
- D0-0Fenerbahçe14 September 2026
- W4-2away to Göztepe7 September 2026
Kasımpaşa
Süper Lig
- W4-1Samsunspor18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Galatasaray9 October 2026
- D0-0Konyaspor18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.13 September 2026
- D2-2Amed6 September 2026
What these results say
- Gaziantep FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gaziantep FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kasımpaşa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kasımpaşa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kasımpaşa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa
- 9 February 2026Gaziantep FK 2–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 30 August 2025Kasımpaşa 2–3 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 24 May 2025Gaziantep FK 2–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 5 January 2025Kasımpaşa 2–2 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 21 April 2024Gaziantep FK 2–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 3 December 2023Kasımpaşa 4–2 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa
Gaziantep FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gaziantep FK carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.67 for Kasımpaşa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.39 for Kasımpaşa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gaziantep FK rate 0.68 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kasımpaşa rate 0.78 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gaziantep FK a 0% chance of the title and Kasımpaşa 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kasımpaşa the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gaziantep FK against 1.39 for Kasımpaşa. Gaziantep FK's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.12 for Kasımpaşa.
How the model reaches 38% for Kasımpaşa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kasımpaşa to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Gaziantep FK's ratings add 19 points and Kasımpaşa's ratings take away 11 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Gaziantep FK's ratings49%+19
- Kasımpaşa's ratings38%−11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gaziantep FK at home · Kasımpaşa away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Gaziantep FKKasımpaşa
Gaziantep FK are 14th after 8 Süper Lig matches (between 3rd and 14th so far); Kasımpaşa are 7th after 8 (between 2nd and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Gaziantep FK 8, Kasımpaşa 8.
Kasımpaşa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Gaziantep FK have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Gaziantep FK
- at Gençlerbirliği S.K.21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 31%
- vs Amed28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 25%
- at Konyaspor5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 27%
Kasımpaşa
- vs Alanyaspor22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 43%
- at Rizespor27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 35%
- vs Göztepe7 Dec · Süper Ligwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.