FC Saarbrücken
vs
Waldhof Mannheim
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Saarbrücken 2–1 Waldhof Mannheim
The model makes it 53% FC Saarbrücken, 24% draw, 23% Waldhof Mannheim — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Saarbrücken 1.99, Waldhof Mannheim 1.13.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to FC Saarbrücken: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- FC Saarbrücken are 4th on 17 points from 10 games; Waldhof Mannheim are 11th on 13 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- FC Saarbrücken have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Fortuna Düsseldorf.
- Waldhof Mannheim have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Würzburger Kickers.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Saarbrücken 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended FC Saarbrücken 2–0 Waldhof Mannheim.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Saarbrücken at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim
FC Saarbrücken
- W3-1away to Fortuna Düsseldorf17 October 2026
- L2-4MSV Duisburg13 October 2026
- D0-0away to Fortuna Köln10 October 2026
- W2-1SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Preußen Münster16 September 2026
Waldhof Mannheim
- L0-2away to Würzburger Kickers17 October 2026
- L0-3FC Ingolstadt 0414 October 2026
- W5-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach10 October 2026
- W2-0Preußen Münster20 September 2026
- L1-2Rot-Weiß Essen16 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Saarbrücken scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Saarbrücken conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Saarbrücken had three goals or more.
- Waldhof Mannheim conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 17 |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Saarbrücken vs Waldhof Mannheim
- 2 May 2026FC Saarbrücken 2–0 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
- 7 December 2025Waldhof Mannheim 2–1 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 8 February 2025FC Saarbrücken 2–1 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
- 31 August 2024Waldhof Mannheim 0–1 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 18 February 2024Waldhof Mannheim 0–2 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 23 September 2023FC Saarbrücken 1–1 Waldhof Mannheim3. Liga
Leading scorers: FC Saarbrücken and Waldhof Mannheim
FC Saarbrücken
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Waldhof Mannheim
GoalsAssists
- N. X. Muteba NTumba20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Saarbrücken carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.15 for Waldhof Mannheim. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for FC Saarbrücken and 1.13 for Waldhof Mannheim. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Saarbrücken rate 0.60 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Waldhof Mannheim rate 0.50 and 2.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Saarbrücken a 2.1% chance of the title and Waldhof Mannheim 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Saarbrücken the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for FC Saarbrücken against 1.13 for Waldhof Mannheim. FC Saarbrücken's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.04 for Waldhof Mannheim.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Saarbrücken at home · Waldhof Mannheim away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Saarbrücken 10, Waldhof Mannheim 10.
FC Saarbrücken score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Waldhof Mannheim have let in 3 there.
Waldhof Mannheim score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); FC Saarbrücken have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Saarbrücken
- at FC Viktoria Köln6 Nov · 3. Ligawin 24%
- vs SV Wehen22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 47%
- vs Alemannia Aachen28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 43%
- at Hoffenheim II5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 32%
Waldhof Mannheim
- vs Fortuna Köln7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 41%
- at Alemannia Aachen21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 21%
- vs Stuttgart II28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 43%
- at MSV Duisburg5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.