Verl
vs
SV Wehen
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Verl 1–0 SV Wehen
The model makes it 49% Verl, 27% draw, 24% SV Wehen — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Verl 1.63, SV Wehen 0.99.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Verl are 13th on 12 points from 9 games; SV Wehen are 14th on 12 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- Verl are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to SSV Jahn Regensburg.
- SV Wehen are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to SSV Jahn Regensburg.
- Last 6 meetings: SV Wehen 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended SV Wehen 2–1 Verl.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Verl vs SV Wehen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Verl at 49% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Verl vs SV Wehen
Verl
- D2-2SSV Jahn Regensburg14 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortuna Düsseldorf11 October 2026
- W2-1Würzburger Kickers18 September 2026
- D1-1away to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach15 September 2026
- W2-1SV Meppen12 September 2026
SV Wehen
- D0-0away to SSV Jahn Regensburg17 October 2026
- W3-0Alemannia Aachen14 October 2026
- W4-2away to FC Ingolstadt 0411 October 2026
- L1-4MSV Duisburg20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Fortuna Köln16 September 2026
What these results say
- Verl went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Verl scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Verl conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SV Wehen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Verl | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | SV Wehen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Verl
Chance to finish in the top four · 14% today
SV Wehen
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Verl vs SV Wehen
- 25 January 2026SV Wehen 2–1 Verl3. Liga
- 9 August 2025Verl 2–2 SV Wehen3. Liga
- 18 January 2025SV Wehen 0–1 Verl3. Liga
- 3 August 2024Verl 2–2 SV Wehen3. Liga
- 13 May 2023SV Wehen 2–1 Verl3. Liga
- 12 November 2022Verl 1–1 SV Wehen3. Liga
Leading scorers: Verl and SV Wehen
Verl
GoalsAssists
- D. Waidner20
SV Wehen
GoalsAssists
- G. Fechner20
- L. Schleimer12
- R. Kalem12
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Verl carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.22 for SV Wehen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Verl and 0.99 for SV Wehen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Verl rate 0.60 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Wehen rate 0.47 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Verl a 1% chance of the title and SV Wehen 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Verl the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Verl against 0.99 for SV Wehen. Verl's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.67 for SV Wehen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Verl at home · SV Wehen away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Verl 9, SV Wehen 10.
SV Wehen score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Verl have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Verl
- at Stuttgart II8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 36%
- vs Rot-Weiß Essen21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 39%
- at Preußen Münster28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 28%
SV Wehen
- vs Havelse7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 56%
- at FC Saarbrücken22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 26%
- vs SV Meppen29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 45%
- at Fortuna Düsseldorf5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.