Barnsley
vs
Sheffield Wednesday
League One prediction
Our model says: Barnsley 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday
The model makes it 30% Barnsley, 27% draw, 43% Sheffield Wednesday — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Barnsley 1.25, Sheffield Wednesday 1.59.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Sheffield Wednesday: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Barnsley's rating is built from 58 League One matches and Sheffield Wednesday's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,272 matches.
Key facts
- Barnsley are 23rd on 9 points from 12 games; Sheffield Wednesday are 9th on 20 points from 13 games — League One.
- Barnsley have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Oxford United.
- Sheffield Wednesday are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Blackpool.
- Last 6 meetings: Barnsley 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 May 2023, ended Barnsley 0–1 Sheffield Wednesday.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday
Has the model earned this number?
Sheffield Wednesday at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday
Barnsley
League One
- D1-1Oxford United31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Reading24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Luton20 October 2026
- L1-2Cambridge United17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Stockport County10 October 2026
Sheffield Wednesday
League One
- D1-1Blackpool1 November 2026
- D1-1Cambridge United27 October 2026
- L0-2away to Doncaster24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Notts County20 October 2026
- W5-0AFC Wimbledon17 October 2026
What these results say
- Barnsley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Wednesday failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Wednesday conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sheffield Wednesday had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 9 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Barnsley
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 44% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Barnsley vs Sheffield Wednesday
- 29 May 2023Barnsley 0–1 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
- 21 March 2023Barnsley 4–2 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
- 3 September 2022Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 BarnsleyLeague One
- 17 July 2021Barnsley 2–0 Sheffield WednesdayFriendlies Clubs
- 20 March 2021Barnsley 1–2 Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
- 12 December 2020Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 BarnsleyChampionship
Leading scorers: Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday
Barnsley
No player in League One's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Sheffield Wednesday
GoalsAssists
- J. Lowe52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Barnsley a 0% chance of the title and Sheffield Wednesday 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Wednesday the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Barnsley against 1.59 for Sheffield Wednesday. Barnsley's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.61 for Sheffield Wednesday.
How the model reaches 43% for Sheffield Wednesday to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sheffield Wednesday to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Barnsley's ratings add 6 points and Sheffield Wednesday's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Barnsley's ratings37%+6
- Sheffield Wednesday's ratings43%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Barnsley at home · Sheffield Wednesday away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Barnsley 12, Sheffield Wednesday 13.
Sheffield Wednesday score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Barnsley have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Barnsley
- at Bradford24 Nov · League Onewin 22%
- at AFC Wimbledon28 Nov · League Onewin 36%
- vs Wycombe1 Dec · League Onewin 35%
Sheffield Wednesday
- at Stevenage24 Nov · League Onewin 33%
- vs Reading28 Nov · League Onewin 39%
- at Oxford United1 Dec · League Onewin 24%
- at Leicester10 Dec · League Onewin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.