FC Dnepr Mogilev
vs
FC Vitebsk
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 FC Vitebsk
The model makes it 34% FC Dnepr Mogilev, 31% draw, 35% FC Vitebsk — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Dnepr Mogilev 1.11, FC Vitebsk 1.14.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: FC Dnepr Mogilev and FC Vitebsk are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. FC Dnepr Mogilev's rating is built from 28 Belarusian Premier League matches and FC Vitebsk's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Dnepr Mogilev are 15th on 23 points from 28 games; FC Vitebsk are 7th on 40 points from 28 games — Premier League.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Neman.
- FC Vitebsk are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dinamo Minsk.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Vitebsk 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 July 2026, ended FC Vitebsk 1–0 FC Dnepr Mogilev.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Vitebsk
Has the model earned this number?
FC Vitebsk at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Vitebsk
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Premier League
- L1-2away to Neman8 November 2026
- W2-1FC Gomel31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Arsenal Dzerzhinsk25 October 2026
- W2-1Bate Borisov18 October 2026
- L2-3Dinamo Minsk11 October 2026
FC Vitebsk
Premier League
- L0-1Dinamo Minsk7 November 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Brest31 October 2026
- L0-2ML Vitebsk24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Baranovichi17 October 2026
- D0-0FC Isloch Minsk R.11 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Dnepr Mogilev scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Dnepr Mogilev had three goals or more.
- FC Vitebsk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Vitebsk had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Belarus Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 23 |
| 7 | FC Vitebsk | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 62% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs FC Vitebsk
- 4 July 2026FC Vitebsk 1–0 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
- 28 February 2026FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–4 FC VitebskFriendlies Clubs
- 12 July 2025FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 FC VitebskCoppa
- 8 November 2024FC Vitebsk 2–1 FC Dnepr MogilevPremier League
- 23 June 2024FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–2 FC VitebskPremier League
- 27 August 2023FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–0 FC Vitebsk1. Division
How the call on FC Dnepr Mogilev v FC Vitebsk has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 33% / 30% / 37% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 34% / 31% / 35%: the biggest move is FC Vitebsk's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- FC Dnepr Mogilev win34%▲ +1
- Draw31%▲ +1
- FC Vitebsk win35%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Vitebsk the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for FC Dnepr Mogilev against 1.14 for FC Vitebsk. FC Dnepr Mogilev's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.59 for FC Vitebsk.
How the model reaches 35% for FC Vitebsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Vitebsk to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, FC Dnepr Mogilev's ratings add 4 points and FC Vitebsk's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- FC Dnepr Mogilev's ratings32%+4
- FC Vitebsk's ratings35%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Dnepr Mogilev at home · FC Vitebsk away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Dnepr Mogilev 28, FC Vitebsk 28.
FC Dnepr Mogilev score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); FC Vitebsk have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
FC Dnepr Mogilev
- at FC Minsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
FC Vitebsk
- vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.