FC Rostov
vs
FC Krasnodar
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Rostov 1–2 FC Krasnodar
The model makes it 34% FC Rostov, 27% draw, 39% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Rostov 1.37, FC Krasnodar 1.47.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to FC Krasnodar: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Rostov's rating is built from 44 Russian Premier League matches and FC Krasnodar's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.
Key facts
- FC Rostov are 6th on 19 points from 14 games; FC Krasnodar are 4th on 26 points from 14 games — Premier League.
- FC Rostov are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Zenit.
- FC Krasnodar have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to CSKA Moscow.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Krasnodar 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 October 2026, ended FC Rostov 0–3 FC Krasnodar.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar
Has the model earned this number?
FC Krasnodar at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar
FC Rostov
Premier League
- D2-2away to Zenit8 November 2026
- W3-0away to Dinamo Makhachkala1 November 2026
- W2-0Lokomotiv25 October 2026
- D0-0away to Baltika18 October 2026
- W1-0Akron9 October 2026
FC Krasnodar
Premier League
- W4-2CSKA Moscow7 November 2026
- L1-2away to Rodina Moskva31 October 2026
- D1-1Baltika24 October 2026
- D3-3away to Lokomotiv17 October 2026
- L2-3Zenit10 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Rostov went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Rostov scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Rostov kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Krasnodar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Krasnodar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for FC Krasnodar.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | FC Rostov | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 19 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Rostov
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
FC Krasnodar
Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar
- 3 October 2026FC Rostov 0–3 FC KrasnodarFriendlies Clubs
- 29 August 2026FC Krasnodar 1–0 FC RostovPremier League
- 11 July 2026FC Krasnodar 3–3 FC RostovFriendlies Clubs
- 28 February 2026FC Krasnodar 2–1 FC RostovPremier League
- 27 September 2025FC Rostov 0–0 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 16 March 2025FC Rostov 0–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar
FC Rostov
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
FC Krasnodar
GoalsAssists
- J. Córdoba61
- Batxi53
- Christian34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Rostov a 0% chance of the title and FC Krasnodar 4.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Krasnodar the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for FC Rostov against 1.47 for FC Krasnodar. FC Rostov's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.74 for FC Krasnodar.
How the model reaches 39% for FC Krasnodar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Krasnodar to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, FC Rostov's ratings add 3 points and FC Krasnodar's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- FC Rostov's ratings34%+3
- FC Krasnodar's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Rostov at home · FC Krasnodar away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Rostov 14, FC Krasnodar 14.
FC Krasnodar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); FC Rostov have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Rostov
- at Fakel6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- at CSKA Moscow27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Baltika6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Rubin13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 33%
FC Krasnodar
- vs Rubin6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 54%
- vs Spartak Moscow27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Krylia Sovetov6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- at Baltika13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.