FC Orenburg
vs
Rodina Moskva
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Orenburg 1–0 Rodina Moskva
The model makes it 50% FC Orenburg, 27% draw, 23% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Orenburg 1.64, Rodina Moskva 0.95.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to FC Orenburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Orenburg's rating is built from 44 Russian Premier League matches and Rodina Moskva's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 600 matches.
Key facts
- FC Orenburg are 10th on 17 points from 14 games; Rodina Moskva are 13th on 12 points from 14 games — Premier League.
- FC Orenburg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Krylia Sovetov.
- Rodina Moskva have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Akhmat.
- Last 3 meetings: FC Orenburg 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 October 2026, ended FC Orenburg 2–1 Rodina Moskva.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva
Has the model earned this number?
FC Orenburg at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva
FC Orenburg
Premier League
- L0-2away to Krylia Sovetov8 November 2026
- D0-0CSKA Moscow1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Akhmat23 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rodina Moskva19 October 2026
- W4-0Dinamo Makhachkala10 October 2026
Rodina Moskva
Premier League
- L0-1away to Akhmat7 November 2026
- W2-1FC Krasnodar31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Fakel24 October 2026
- D2-2FC Orenburg19 October 2026
- L0-3away to CSKA Moscow11 October 2026
What these results say
- Rodina Moskva conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Russia Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FC Orenburg | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Rodina Moskva | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Orenburg
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 10% today
Rodina Moskva
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 73% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva
- 28 October 2026FC Orenburg 2–1 Rodina MoskvaCup
- 19 October 2026Rodina Moskva 2–2 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 18 August 2026Rodina Moskva 1–4 FC OrenburgCup
Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and Rodina Moskva
FC Orenburg
GoalsAssists
- J. Thompson42
Rodina Moskva
GoalsAssists
- A. Maksimenko31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Orenburg the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for FC Orenburg against 0.95 for Rodina Moskva. FC Orenburg's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.42 for Rodina Moskva.
How the model reaches 50% for FC Orenburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Orenburg to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, FC Orenburg's ratings add 3 points and Rodina Moskva's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- FC Orenburg's ratings44%+3
- Rodina Moskva's ratings50%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Orenburg at home · Rodina Moskva away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Orenburg 14, Rodina Moskva 14.
FC Orenburg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Rodina Moskva have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Orenburg
- at Akron5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Zenit6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- vs Krylia Sovetov13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 40%
Rodina Moskva
- vs CSKA Moscow5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at Baltika27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Dynamo6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Zenit13 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 18%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.