Paks
vs
Puskas Academy
NB I prediction
Our model says: Paks 2–1 Puskas Academy
The model makes it 44% Paks, 26% draw, 30% Puskas Academy — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Paks 1.69, Puskas Academy 1.32.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Paks's rating is built from 46 Hungarian NB I matches and Puskas Academy's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 473 matches.
Key facts
- Paks are 5th on 20 points from 13 games; Puskas Academy are top on 24 points from 13 games — NB I.
- Paks have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Zalaegerszegi TE.
- Puskas Academy have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Kisvarda FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Paks 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Puskas Academy 3–2 Paks.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Paks vs Puskas Academy
Has the model earned this number?
Paks at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Paks vs Puskas Academy
Paks
NB I
- W2-1Zalaegerszegi TE7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Ferencvarosi TC1 November 2026
- W2-0away to Vasas25 October 2026
- L1-2Gyori ETO FC17 October 2026
- W3-0MTK Budapest10 October 2026
Puskas Academy
NB I
- W1-0away to Kisvarda FC7 November 2026
- L1-3Debreceni VSC1 November 2026
- L1-2Nyiregyhaza25 October 2026
- W1-0away to Ujpest17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Gyori ETO FC11 October 2026
What these results say
- Paks scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puskas Academy scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Paks | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 22 | +2 | 20 |
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Paks vs Puskas Academy
- 16 August 2026Puskas Academy 3–2 PaksNB I
- 19 April 2026Paks 1–0 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 24 January 2026Puskas Academy 1–2 PaksNB I
- 27 September 2025Paks 3–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 19 April 2025Paks 2–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 14 December 2024Puskas Academy 3–1 PaksNB I
Leading scorers: Paks and Puskas Academy
Paks
GoalsAssists
- M. Pető61
- J. Szalai61
Puskas Academy
GoalsAssists
- A. Németh52
- P. Dárdai32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Puskas Academy (first, with Paks fifth), while our numbers lean to Paks. Paks rate 0.79 in attack and 1.52 in defence, Puskas Academy 0.62 and 1.29 (lower is better in defence), so Paks have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 4-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Paks a 3% chance of the title and Puskas Academy 4.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Paks the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Paks against 1.32 for Puskas Academy. Paks's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.29 for Puskas Academy.
How the model reaches 44% for Paks to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Paks to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Paks's ratings add 2 points and Puskas Academy's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Paks's ratings43%+2
- Puskas Academy's ratings44%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Paks at home · Puskas Academy away
League matches only, NB I, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
PaksPuskas Academy
Paks are 5th after 13 NB I matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Puskas Academy are 1st after 13 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Paks 13, Puskas Academy 13.
Paks score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Puskas Academy have let in 4 there.
Puskas Academy score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Paks have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Paks
- at Ujpest5 Dec · NB Iwin 39%
- vs Nyiregyhaza12 Dec · NB Iwin 55%
- at Debreceni VSC19 Dec · NB Iwin 30%
- vs Kisvarda FC30 Jan · NB Iwin 50%
Puskas Academy
- vs Vasas6 Dec · NB Iwin 43%
- at Ferencvarosi TC14 Dec · NB Iwin 19%
- vs Zalaegerszegi TE20 Dec · NB Iwin 45%
- at Budapest Honved30 Jan · NB Iwin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.