Regular Season - 11 · 8 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96 2. Bundesliga prediction

Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

Our model says: 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1 Hannover 96

The model makes it 44% 1. FC Heidenheim, 25% draw, 31% Hannover 96 — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.79, Hannover 96 1.40.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. 1. FC Heidenheim's rating is built from 9 2. Bundesliga matches and Hannover 96's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 694 matches.

Key facts

  • 1. FC Heidenheim are 6th on 15 points from 9 games; Hannover 96 are 14th on 8 points from 8 games — 2. Bundesliga.
  • 1. FC Heidenheim are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Energie Cottbus.
  • Hannover 96 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to FC St. Pauli.
  • Last 6 meetings: Hannover 96 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 April 2023, ended Hannover 96 0–3 FC Heidenheim.

More 2. Bundesliga predictions

All 2. Bundesliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96

63%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

1. FC Heidenheim win Draw Hannover 96 win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 2–07%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read 1. FC Heidenheim first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 48%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 44% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96

1. FC Heidenheim

2. Bundesliga

  • D1-1Energie Cottbus24 October 2026
  • L1-3away to VfL Wolfsburg17 October 2026
  • D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern9 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld20 September 2026
  • W1-0Holstein Kiel13 September 2026

Hannover 96

2. Bundesliga

  • D1-1FC St. Pauli17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to 1. FC Magdeburg10 October 2026
  • W2-1VfL Bochum20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to 1. FC Nürnberg11 September 2026
  • D2-2Karlsruher SC4 September 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Heidenheim failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 1. FC Heidenheim scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hannover 96 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Hannover 96 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Hannover 96 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
61. FC Heidenheim94321616015
14Hannover 968224813-58

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Hannover 96

  • 14 April 2023Hannover 96 0–3 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 9 October 2022FC Heidenheim 2–1 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
  • 4 February 2022FC Heidenheim 3–1 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
  • 20 August 2021Hannover 96 1–0 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 11 April 2021Hannover 96 1–3 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 12 December 2020FC Heidenheim 1–0 Hannover 962. Bundesliga

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

1. FC Heidenheim carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.49 for Hannover 96. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.40 for Hannover 96. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

1. FC Heidenheim rate 0.75 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hannover 96 rate 0.67 and 1.38.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 2.2% chance of the title and Hannover 96 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 1. FC Heidenheim the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.40 for Hannover 96. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.38 for Hannover 96.

How the model reaches 44% for 1. FC Heidenheim to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for 1. FC Heidenheim to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, 1. FC Heidenheim's ratings take away 18 points and Hannover 96's ratings add 19 points, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage43%+6
  3. 1. FC Heidenheim's ratings25%−18
  4. Hannover 96's ratings44%+19

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

1. FC HeidenheimHannover 96
9Matches8
4W 3D 2LRecord2W 2D 4L
16 1.8 per gameGoals scored8 1.0 per game
16 1.8 per gameGoals conceded13 1.6 per game
3 of 9Clean sheets1 of 8
1 of 9Failed to score2 of 8
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
14 1.6 per gameYellow cards17 2.1 per game
4-4-2 7×Usual shape3-3-1-3 4×

1. FC Heidenheim at home · Hannover 96 away

5Played4
3W 2D 0LRecord1W 0D 3L
11–7Goals for – against3–8
2 of 5Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Heidenheim 9, Hannover 96 8.

1. FC Heidenheim scored 232315
Hannover 96 conceded 311125

1. FC Heidenheim score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Hannover 96 have let in 5 there.

Hannover 96 scored 132200
1. FC Heidenheim conceded 333124

Hannover 96 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); 1. FC Heidenheim have let in 3 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

1. FC Heidenheim

  • at SV Darmstadt 9820 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
  • vs 1. FC Nürnberg27 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
  • at FC St. Pauli6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 28%
  • at VfL Bochum13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 35%

Hannover 96

  • vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
  • at VfL Osnabrück28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
  • vs Hertha BSC6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 34%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.