FC Krasnodar
vs
CSKA Moscow
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Krasnodar 2–1 CSKA Moscow
The model makes it 48% FC Krasnodar, 26% draw, 26% CSKA Moscow — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Krasnodar 1.84, CSKA Moscow 1.21.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FC Krasnodar's rating is built from 41 Russian Premier League matches and CSKA Moscow's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 577 matches.
Key facts
- FC Krasnodar are 5th on 22 points from 11 games; CSKA Moscow are 4th on 22 points from 11 games — Premier League.
- FC Krasnodar have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Lokomotiv.
- CSKA Moscow have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Dynamo.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 March 2026, ended FC Krasnodar 4–0 CSKA Moscow.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Krasnodar at 48% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow
FC Krasnodar
Premier League
- D3-3away to Lokomotiv17 October 2026
- L2-3Zenit10 October 2026
- D0-0away to FC Orenburg17 September 2026
- D1-1Akron13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Krylia Sovetov5 September 2026
CSKA Moscow
Premier League
- L1-3away to Dynamo18 October 2026
- W3-0Rodina Moskva11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 September 2026
- D1-1Rubin12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Krasnodar did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Krasnodar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Krasnodar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for CSKA Moscow had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Krasnodar | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 22 |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow
- 17 March 2026FC Krasnodar 4–0 CSKA MoscowCup
- 4 March 2026CSKA Moscow 3–1 FC KrasnodarCup
- 3 February 2026CSKA Moscow 2–2 FC KrasnodarFriendlies Clubs
- 7 December 2025FC Krasnodar 3–2 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 31 August 2025CSKA Moscow 1–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 12 July 2025FC Krasnodar 0–1 CSKA MoscowSuper Cup
Leading scorers: FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow
FC Krasnodar
GoalsAssists
- Batxi43
- J. Córdoba31
CSKA Moscow
GoalsAssists
- I. Oblyakov71
- I. Oleynikov34
- L. Gondou31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Krasnodar carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.35 for CSKA Moscow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.21 for CSKA Moscow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Krasnodar rate 0.71 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Moscow rate 0.62 and 1.67.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour CSKA Moscow, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Krasnodar a 11.3% chance of the title and CSKA Moscow 3.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Krasnodar the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for FC Krasnodar against 1.21 for CSKA Moscow. FC Krasnodar's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.67 for CSKA Moscow.
How the model reaches 48% for FC Krasnodar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Krasnodar to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, FC Krasnodar's ratings take away 20 points and CSKA Moscow's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- FC Krasnodar's ratings22%−20
- CSKA Moscow's ratings48%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Krasnodar at home · CSKA Moscow away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Krasnodar 11, CSKA Moscow 11.
FC Krasnodar score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); CSKA Moscow have let in 2 there.
CSKA Moscow score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); FC Krasnodar have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Krasnodar
- at Dynamo22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at FC Rostov29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- vs Rubin6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 55%
CSKA Moscow
- vs Akhmat21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- vs Zenit28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at Rodina Moskva5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.