Rubin
vs
Krylia Sovetov
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Rubin 1–0 Krylia Sovetov
The model makes it 44% Rubin, 29% draw, 27% Krylia Sovetov — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rubin 1.47, Krylia Sovetov 1.04.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rubin are 6th on 12 points from 10 games; Krylia Sovetov are 10th on 12 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Rubin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dynamo.
- Krylia Sovetov are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Spartak Moscow.
- Last 6 meetings: Rubin 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended Rubin 2–0 Krylia Sovetov.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rubin at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov
Rubin
- L0-1Dynamo11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rodina Moskva16 September 2026
- D1-1away to CSKA Moscow12 September 2026
- D1-1Akhmat7 September 2026
- W3-1Dinamo Makhachkala30 August 2026
Krylia Sovetov
- D1-1Spartak Moscow10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv16 September 2026
- W2-1Rodina Moskva11 September 2026
- D2-2FC Krasnodar5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Akhmat29 August 2026
What these results say
- Rubin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rubin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rubin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Krylia Sovetov conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rubin | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rubin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
Krylia Sovetov
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rubin vs Krylia Sovetov
- 11 July 2026Rubin 2–0 Krylia SovetovFriendlies Clubs
- 22 March 2026Krylia Sovetov 0–0 RubinPremier League
- 4 October 2025Rubin 2–0 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 5 April 2025Krylia Sovetov 1–1 RubinPremier League
- 13 September 2024Rubin 0–2 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 4 July 2024Rubin 2–2 Krylia SovetovFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Rubin and Krylia Sovetov
Rubin
GoalsAssists
- A. Arroyo31
Krylia Sovetov
GoalsAssists
- A. Rahmanović30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rubin carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.22 for Krylia Sovetov. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Rubin and 1.04 for Krylia Sovetov. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rubin rate 0.48 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Krylia Sovetov rate 0.56 and 1.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rubin a 0.1% chance of the title and Krylia Sovetov 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rubin the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Rubin against 1.04 for Krylia Sovetov. Rubin's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.99 for Krylia Sovetov.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rubin at home · Krylia Sovetov away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Rubin 10, Krylia Sovetov 10.
Krylia Sovetov score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Rubin have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rubin
- vs Fakel31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 57%
- at Lokomotiv6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Zenit21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Akron28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 52%
Krylia Sovetov
- vs Zenit2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs FC Orenburg8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at FC Rostov20 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Dynamo29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.