Fakel
vs
Dynamo
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Fakel 0–2 Dynamo
The model makes it 19% Fakel, 24% draw, 57% Dynamo — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Fakel 0.89, Dynamo 1.96.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Dynamo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Fakel's rating is built from 11 Russian Premier League matches and Dynamo's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 577 matches.
Key facts
- Fakel are 15th on 6 points from 11 games; Dynamo are top on 25 points from 11 games — Premier League.
- Fakel have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Krylia Sovetov.
- Dynamo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to CSKA Moscow.
- Last 6 meetings: Dynamo 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 5 August 2026, ended Fakel 0–1 Dynamo.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fakel vs Dynamo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dynamo at 57% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fakel vs Dynamo
Fakel
Premier League
- W2-1away to Krylia Sovetov17 October 2026
- L0-5Lokomotiv10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Spartak Moscow16 September 2026
- D2-2Baltika12 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
Dynamo
Premier League
- W3-1CSKA Moscow18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Rubin11 October 2026
- W3-0away to FC Rostov17 September 2026
- W1-0FC Orenburg12 September 2026
- W2-1Spartak Moscow6 September 2026
What these results say
- Fakel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fakel failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fakel had three goals or more.
- Dynamo won every one of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fakel | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 6 |
| 1 | Dynamo | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fakel vs Dynamo
- 5 August 2026Fakel 0–1 DynamoCup
- 24 November 2024Fakel 1–1 DynamoPremier League
- 20 July 2024Dynamo 3–1 FakelPremier League
- 10 December 2023Fakel Voronezh 1–1 Dinamo MoscowPremier League
- 8 October 2023Dinamo Moscow 0–0 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
- 28 April 2023Dinamo Moscow 0–2 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
Leading scorers: Fakel and Dynamo
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- K. Tyukavin51
- V. Okishor32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Fakel carry a model rating of 6.02 against 6.52 for Dynamo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.89 goals for Fakel and 1.96 for Dynamo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fakel rate 0.41 in attack and 2.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dynamo rate 0.73 and 1.40.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fakel a 0% chance of the title and Dynamo 30.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Fakel against 1.96 for Dynamo. Fakel's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.4 for Dynamo.
How the model reaches 57% for Dynamo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dynamo to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Fakel's ratings add 43 points and Dynamo's ratings take away 17 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Fakel's ratings74%+43
- Dynamo's ratings57%−17
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fakel at home · Dynamo away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Fakel 11, Dynamo 11.
Dynamo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Fakel have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fakel
- at Akron21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Spartak Moscow30 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs FC Rostov6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Dynamo
- vs FC Krasnodar22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Krylia Sovetov29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- at Spartak Moscow6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.