Ried
vs
Lask Linz
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Ried 1–2 Lask Linz
The model makes it 27% Ried, 25% draw, 48% Lask Linz — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ried 1.29, Lask Linz 1.89.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
One-sided: Lask Linz are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Ried's rating is built from 44 Austrian Bundesliga matches and Lask Linz's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 445 matches.
Key facts
- Ried are 5th on 14 points from 9 games; Lask Linz are 3rd on 19 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Ried are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Austria Vienna.
- Lask Linz have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Austria Lustenau.
- Last 6 meetings: Lask Linz 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 14 August 2026, ended Lask Linz 4–1 Ried.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ried vs Lask Linz
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lask Linz at 48% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ried vs Lask Linz
Ried
Bundesliga
- W3-2Austria Vienna17 October 2026
- W2-1away to WSG Wattens10 October 2026
- W4-1Wolfsberger AC20 September 2026
- D1-1Red Bull Salzburg11 September 2026
- L2-3away to TSV Hartberg30 August 2026
Lask Linz
Bundesliga
- W4-0away to Austria Lustenau17 October 2026
- L0-2Rapid Vienna11 October 2026
- D3-3away to TSV Hartberg20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sturm Graz13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Wolfsberger AC1 September 2026
What these results say
- Ried scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ried conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ried.
- Lask Linz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lask Linz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lask Linz had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ried | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 14 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ried vs Lask Linz
- 14 August 2026Lask Linz 4–1 RiedBundesliga
- 18 March 2026Ried 1–2 Lask LinzCup
- 14 February 2026Ried 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 30 August 2025Lask Linz 1–3 RiedBundesliga
- 21 March 2025Lask Linz 1–1 RiedFriendlies Clubs
- 18 February 2023Ried 1–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
Leading scorers: Ried and Lask Linz
Ried
GoalsAssists
- S. Schwab41
- P. Pomer31
Lask Linz
GoalsAssists
- C. Lang70
- S. Adeniran51
- M. Usor23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ried carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.7 for Lask Linz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Ried and 1.89 for Lask Linz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ried rate 0.63 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lask Linz rate 0.93 and 1.25.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ried a 0% chance of the title and Lask Linz 12.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lask Linz the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Ried against 1.89 for Lask Linz. Ried's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.25 for Lask Linz.
How the model reaches 48% for Lask Linz to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lask Linz to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Ried's ratings add 26 points and Lask Linz's ratings take away 8 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage30%−7
- Ried's ratings56%+26
- Lask Linz's ratings48%−8
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ried at home · Lask Linz away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
RiedLask Linz
Ried are 5th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 4th and 10th so far); Lask Linz are 3rd after 9 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Ried 9, Lask Linz 9.
Ried score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Lask Linz have let in 1 there.
Lask Linz score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Ried have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Ried
- at Wolfsberger AC22 Nov · Bundesligawin 41%
- vs TSV Hartberg29 Nov · Bundesligawin 42%
- vs WSG Wattens6 Dec · Bundesligawin 48%
Lask Linz
- vs TSV Hartberg21 Nov · Bundesligawin 62%
- at Bodo/Glimt24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.