Fakel
vs
Rodina Moskva
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Fakel 2–1 Rodina Moskva
The model makes it 41% Fakel, 27% draw, 32% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Fakel 1.56, Rodina Moskva 1.32.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fakel are bottom on 3 points from 10 games; Rodina Moskva are 15th on 5 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Fakel have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Lokomotiv.
- Rodina Moskva have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to CSKA Moscow.
- Last 2 meetings: Rodina Moskva 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2026, ended Fakel 1–3 Rodina Moskva.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fakel vs Rodina Moskva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fakel at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fakel vs Rodina Moskva
Fakel
- L0-5Lokomotiv10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Spartak Moscow16 September 2026
- D2-2Baltika12 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
- L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
Rodina Moskva
- L0-3away to CSKA Moscow11 October 2026
- D1-1Rubin16 September 2026
- L1-2away to Krylia Sovetov11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala6 September 2026
- L0-3Baltika30 August 2026
What these results say
- Fakel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fakel conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rodina Moskva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rodina Moskva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fakel | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fakel
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 93% today
Rodina Moskva
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 85% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fakel vs Rodina Moskva
- 13 April 2026Fakel 1–3 Rodina MoskvaFirst League
- 15 September 2025Rodina Moskva 2–0 FakelFirst League
Leading scorers: Fakel and Rodina Moskva
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Rodina Moskva
GoalsAssists
- A. Maksimenko31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fakel carry a model rating of 5.94 against 5.98 for Rodina Moskva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Fakel and 1.32 for Rodina Moskva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fakel rate 0.37 in attack and 2.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rodina Moskva rate 0.47 and 2.73.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rodina Moskva, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fakel the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Fakel against 1.32 for Rodina Moskva. Fakel's attack/defence rating is 0.37/2.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.73 for Rodina Moskva.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fakel at home · Rodina Moskva away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Fakel 10, Rodina Moskva 10.
Fakel score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Rodina Moskva have let in 8 there.
Rodina Moskva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Fakel have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Fakel
- at Rubin31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs Dynamo7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- at Akron21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Spartak Moscow30 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Rodina Moskva
- vs FC Krasnodar31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 18%
- at Akhmat7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs Lokomotiv22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- at FC Orenburg29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.