FC Krasnodar
vs
Baltika
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Krasnodar 1–0 Baltika
The model makes it 49% FC Krasnodar, 27% draw, 24% Baltika — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Krasnodar 1.65, Baltika 0.99.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Krasnodar: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Krasnodar are 4th on 21 points from 10 games; Baltika are 8th on 12 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- FC Krasnodar are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Zenit.
- Baltika are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Akhmat.
- Last 5 meetings: Baltika 1 win to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 19 July 2026, ended FC Krasnodar 1–1 Baltika.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Krasnodar vs Baltika
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Krasnodar at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Krasnodar vs Baltika
FC Krasnodar
- L2-3Zenit10 October 2026
- D0-0away to FC Orenburg17 September 2026
- D1-1Akron13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Krylia Sovetov5 September 2026
- W1-0FC Rostov29 August 2026
Baltika
- D0-0away to Akhmat11 October 2026
- L2-3Zenit16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Fakel12 September 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Krasnodar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Krasnodar scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Baltika failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 21 |
| 8 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Krasnodar
Chance to finish in the top four · 72% today
Baltika
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Krasnodar vs Baltika
- 19 July 2026FC Krasnodar 1–1 BaltikaFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2026FC Krasnodar 2–2 BaltikaPremier League
- 9 November 2025Baltika 1–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 24 April 2024Krasnodar 3–2 BaltikaPremier League
- 21 October 2023Baltika 2–2 KrasnodarPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Krasnodar and Baltika
FC Krasnodar
GoalsAssists
- Batxi31
- N. Krivtsov31
- Jubal30
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Krasnodar carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.34 for Baltika. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.99 for Baltika. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Krasnodar rate 0.69 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baltika rate 0.55 and 1.55.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Krasnodar a 14.5% chance of the title and Baltika 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Krasnodar the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for FC Krasnodar against 0.99 for Baltika. FC Krasnodar's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.55 for Baltika.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Krasnodar at home · Baltika away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Krasnodar 10, Baltika 10.
FC Krasnodar score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Baltika have let in 3 there.
Baltika score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); FC Krasnodar have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Krasnodar
- at Rodina Moskva31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 60%
- vs CSKA Moscow7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Dynamo22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at FC Rostov29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
Baltika
- vs Akron1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- vs Dinamo Makhachkala8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 53%
- at FC Orenburg21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Akhmat28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.