Austria Lustenau
vs
Grazer AK
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Austria Lustenau 2–1 Grazer AK
The model makes it 40% Austria Lustenau, 26% draw, 34% Grazer AK — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Austria Lustenau 1.62, Grazer AK 1.45.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Austria Lustenau's rating is built from 9 Austrian Bundesliga matches and Grazer AK's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 445 matches.
Key facts
- Austria Lustenau are 10th on 8 points from 9 games; Grazer AK are 9th on 9 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Austria Lustenau have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Lask Linz.
- Grazer AK are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-6 defeat away to Sturm Graz.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Grazer AK 2–1 Austria Lustenau.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Austria Lustenau at 40% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK
Austria Lustenau
Bundesliga
- L0-4Lask Linz17 October 2026
- L3-4away to TSV Hartberg11 October 2026
- W2-0SCR Altach19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Austria Vienna13 September 2026
- L0-4WSG Wattens28 August 2026
Grazer AK
Bundesliga
- L1-6away to Sturm Graz18 October 2026
- D0-0Red Bull Salzburg10 October 2026
- D2-2Austria Vienna19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach12 September 2026
- D0-0Wolfsberger AC29 August 2026
What these results say
- Austria Lustenau failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austria Lustenau conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Austria Lustenau had three goals or more.
- Grazer AK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Austria Lustenau | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK
- 8 August 2026Grazer AK 2–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 26 November 2021Grazer AK 0–0 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
- 25 July 2021Austria Lustenau 2–1 Grazer AK2. Liga
- 12 May 2021Grazer AK 2–0 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
- 11 December 2020Austria Lustenau 3–1 Grazer AK2. Liga
- 6 June 2020Grazer AK 1–1 Austria Lustenau2. Liga
Leading scorers: Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK
Austria Lustenau
GoalsAssists
- D. Weixelbraun61
- A. Verinac32
Grazer AK
GoalsAssists
- A. Hofleitner30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Austria Lustenau carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.25 for Grazer AK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.45 for Grazer AK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austria Lustenau rate 0.55 in attack and 2.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Grazer AK rate 0.54 and 1.80.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Grazer AK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Austria Lustenau the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Austria Lustenau against 1.45 for Grazer AK. Austria Lustenau's attack/defence rating is 0.55/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.8 for Grazer AK.
How the model reaches 40% for Austria Lustenau to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Austria Lustenau to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Austria Lustenau's ratings take away 30 points and Grazer AK's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Austria Lustenau's ratings13%−30
- Grazer AK's ratings40%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Austria Lustenau at home · Grazer AK away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Austria LustenauGrazer AK
Austria Lustenau are 10th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 11th so far); Grazer AK are 9th after 9 (between 5th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Austria Lustenau 9, Grazer AK 9.
Austria Lustenau score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Grazer AK have let in 7 there.
Grazer AK score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Austria Lustenau have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Austria Lustenau
- at WSG Wattens21 Nov · Bundesligawin 25%
- vs Rapid Vienna28 Nov · Bundesligawin 17%
- at Wolfsberger AC6 Dec · Bundesligawin 31%
Grazer AK
- vs Rapid Vienna21 Nov · Bundesligawin 19%
- vs SCR Altach27 Nov · Bundesligawin 39%
- at TSV Hartberg5 Dec · Bundesligawin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.