Akhmat
vs
Rodina Moskva
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Akhmat 2–1 Rodina Moskva
The model makes it 56% Akhmat, 23% draw, 21% Rodina Moskva — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Akhmat 2.17, Rodina Moskva 1.14.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to Akhmat: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Akhmat's rating is built from 42 Russian Premier League matches and Rodina Moskva's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 577 matches.
Key facts
- Akhmat are 13th on 11 points from 12 games; Rodina Moskva are bottom on 6 points from 11 games — Premier League.
- Akhmat are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to FC Orenburg.
- Rodina Moskva have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to FC Orenburg.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Akhmat at 56% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Akhmat vs Rodina Moskva
Akhmat
Premier League
- L0-1FC Orenburg23 October 2026
- L2-3away to Zenit18 October 2026
- D0-0Baltika11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Akron17 September 2026
- W3-2Dinamo Makhachkala13 September 2026
Rodina Moskva
Premier League
- D2-2FC Orenburg19 October 2026
- L0-3away to CSKA Moscow11 October 2026
- D1-1Rubin16 September 2026
- L1-2away to Krylia Sovetov11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Makhachkala6 September 2026
What these results say
- Akhmat failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akhmat conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rodina Moskva did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rodina Moskva conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Rodina Moskva | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Akhmat and Rodina Moskva
Akhmat
GoalsAssists
- L. Sadulaev33
Rodina Moskva
GoalsAssists
- A. Maksimenko31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Akhmat carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.01 for Rodina Moskva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Akhmat and 1.14 for Rodina Moskva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Akhmat rate 0.51 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rodina Moskva rate 0.50 and 2.75.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Akhmat the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Akhmat against 1.14 for Rodina Moskva. Akhmat's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.75 for Rodina Moskva.
How the model reaches 56% for Akhmat to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Akhmat to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Akhmat's ratings take away 28 points and Rodina Moskva's ratings add 42 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Akhmat's ratings14%−28
- Rodina Moskva's ratings56%+42
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Akhmat at home · Rodina Moskva away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Akhmat 12, Rodina Moskva 11.
Akhmat score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Rodina Moskva have let in 5 there.
Rodina Moskva score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Akhmat have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Akhmat
- at CSKA Moscow21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- at Baltika28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs Lokomotiv5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Akron27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 50%
Rodina Moskva
- vs Lokomotiv22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- at FC Orenburg29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs CSKA Moscow5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.