Chaves
vs
Penafiel
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Chaves 1–2 Penafiel
The model makes it 33% Chaves, 25% draw, 42% Penafiel — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chaves 1.62, Penafiel 1.86.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
Edge to Penafiel: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Chaves's rating is built from 42 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Penafiel's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Chaves are 13th on 8 points from 8 games; Penafiel are 4th on 13 points from 7 games — Segunda Liga.
- Chaves have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Vizela.
- Penafiel have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to AVS.
- Last 6 meetings: Penafiel 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended Chaves 0–1 Penafiel.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chaves vs Penafiel
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Penafiel at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chaves vs Penafiel
Chaves
Segunda Liga
- W2-1Vizela23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lusitânia Lourosa11 October 2026
- L0-4away to Farense4 October 2026
- W1-0Feirense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Felgueiras 193230 August 2026
Penafiel
Segunda Liga
- L1-2AVS9 October 2026
- W2-1away to Felgueiras 193212 September 2026
- W4-1Academica5 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC Porto B30 August 2026
- W2-0Sporting CP B23 August 2026
What these results say
- Chaves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Penafiel scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Penafiel won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Penafiel had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Chaves | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chaves vs Penafiel
- 6 February 2026Chaves 0–1 PenafielSegunda Liga
- 30 August 2025Penafiel 0–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 15 May 2025Penafiel 0–0 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 4 January 2025Chaves 0–1 PenafielSegunda Liga
- 18 July 2023Penafiel 1–2 ChavesFriendlies Clubs
- 6 March 2022Penafiel 2–1 ChavesSegunda Liga
The two sides
Chaves carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.52 for Penafiel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Chaves and 1.86 for Penafiel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chaves rate 0.65 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Penafiel rate 0.79 and 1.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chaves a 0.1% chance of the title and Penafiel 16.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Penafiel the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Chaves against 1.86 for Penafiel. Chaves's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.53 for Penafiel.
How the model reaches 42% for Penafiel to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Penafiel to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Chaves's ratings add 31 points and Penafiel's ratings take away 18 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Chaves's ratings60%+31
- Penafiel's ratings42%−18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chaves at home · Penafiel away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Chaves 8, Penafiel 7.
Chaves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Penafiel have let in 2 there.
Penafiel score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Chaves have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Chaves
- at Leixoes15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 23%
- vs Tondela28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 35%
- at União de Leiria6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 23%
- vs FC Porto B13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 38%
Penafiel
- vs Lusitânia Lourosa15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 49%
- vs Benfica B29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at Tondela6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.