Hansa Rostock
vs
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Hansa Rostock 2–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
The model makes it 58% Hansa Rostock, 23% draw, 19% SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Hansa Rostock 2.11, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.01.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,493 settled matches.
Edge to Hansa Rostock: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Hansa Rostock's rating is built from 48 3. Liga matches and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Hansa Rostock are 6th on 15 points from 10 games; SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are 15th on 12 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- Hansa Rostock have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Alemannia Aachen.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Preußen Münster.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2020, ended SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–1 Hansa Rostock.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hansa Rostock at 58% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Hansa Rostock
3. Liga
- L0-2away to Alemannia Aachen17 October 2026
- L0-2SV Meppen13 October 2026
- W2-0away to Würzburger Kickers10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rot-Weiß Essen20 September 2026
- W3-2Stuttgart II16 September 2026
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
3. Liga
- W3-2Preußen Münster17 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Viktoria Köln14 October 2026
- L1-5Waldhof Mannheim10 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Saarbrücken19 September 2026
- D1-1Verl15 September 2026
What these results say
- Hansa Rostock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hansa Rostock had two goals or fewer.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hansa Rostock | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- 15 February 2020SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–1 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
- 17 August 2019Hansa Rostock 0–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
- 9 March 2019Hansa Rostock 0–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
- 22 September 2018SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–0 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
- 20 March 2018SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0–0 Hansa Rostock3. Liga
- 29 July 2017Hansa Rostock 0–0 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3. Liga
Leading scorers: Hansa Rostock and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Hansa Rostock
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
GoalsAssists
- F. Eisele31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hansa Rostock carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.07 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.01 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hansa Rostock rate 0.61 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach rate 0.45 and 2.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hansa Rostock a 3.3% chance of the title and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hansa Rostock the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Hansa Rostock against 1.01 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. Hansa Rostock's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/2.13 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.
How the model reaches 58% for Hansa Rostock to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hansa Rostock to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Hansa Rostock's ratings take away 26 points and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's ratings add 40 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Hansa Rostock's ratings18%−26
- SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach's ratings58%+40
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hansa Rostock at home · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Hansa Rostock 10, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 10.
Hansa Rostock score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Hansa Rostock
- at MSV Duisburg22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 22%
- vs Havelse27 Nov · 3. Ligawin 64%
- at Fortuna Köln5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 35%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- at Fortuna Düsseldorf21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 23%
- vs MSV Duisburg28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 25%
- at Stuttgart II5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.