CFR 1907 Cluj
vs
Universitatea Craiova
Liga I prediction
Our model says: CFR 1907 Cluj 0–1 Universitatea Craiova
The model makes it 27% CFR 1907 Cluj, 29% draw, 44% Universitatea Craiova — fair odds of 3.70, 3.45 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: CFR 1907 Cluj 0.98, Universitatea Craiova 1.40.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
One-sided: Universitatea Craiova are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. CFR 1907 Cluj's rating is built from 52 Romanian Liga I matches and Universitatea Craiova's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 738 matches.
Key facts
- CFR 1907 Cluj are 8th on 16 points from 12 games; Universitatea Craiova are 3rd on 26 points from 12 games — Liga I.
- CFR 1907 Cluj have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Uta Arad.
- Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Farul Constanta.
- Last 6 meetings: Universitatea Craiova 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 8 May 2026, ended CFR 1907 Cluj 0–0 Universitatea Craiova.
More Romanian Liga I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Craiova at 44% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova
CFR 1907 Cluj
Liga I
- L0-1away to Uta Arad18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Arges Pitesti12 October 2026
- L1-3Universitatea Cluj8 October 2026
- W3-1FC Botosani19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe12 September 2026
Universitatea Craiova
Liga I
- W2-0Farul Constanta18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Csikszereda11 October 2026
- W5-0FCSB19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Corvinul Hunedoara13 September 2026
- W4-0Universitatea Cluj7 September 2026
What these results say
- CFR 1907 Cluj scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CFR 1907 Cluj conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova won every one of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Universitatea Craiova kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova
- 8 May 2026CFR 1907 Cluj 0–0 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 6 April 2026Universitatea Craiova 2–0 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 4 March 2026Universitatea Craiova 3–1 CFR 1907 ClujCupa României
- 7 December 2025Universitatea Craiova 1–1 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 3 August 2025CFR 1907 Cluj 2–3 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 10 May 2025Universitatea Craiova 2–2 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
Leading scorers: CFR 1907 Cluj and Universitatea Craiova
CFR 1907 Cluj
GoalsAssists
- S. Dražić61
- A. Cordea52
Universitatea Craiova
GoalsAssists
- S. Elisor70
- A. Al Hamlawi40
- S. Nsimba40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
CFR 1907 Cluj carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.82 for Universitatea Craiova. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for CFR 1907 Cluj and 1.40 for Universitatea Craiova. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
CFR 1907 Cluj rate 0.70 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universitatea Craiova rate 0.88 and 0.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CFR 1907 Cluj a 0.1% chance of the title and Universitatea Craiova 40%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for CFR 1907 Cluj against 1.40 for Universitatea Craiova. CFR 1907 Cluj's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/0.94 for Universitatea Craiova.
How the model reaches 44% for Universitatea Craiova to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Universitatea Craiova to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, CFR 1907 Cluj's ratings add 18 points and Universitatea Craiova's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage29%−6
- CFR 1907 Cluj's ratings47%+18
- Universitatea Craiova's ratings44%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
CFR 1907 Cluj at home · Universitatea Craiova away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CFR 1907 ClujUniversitatea Craiova
CFR 1907 Cluj are 8th after 12 Liga I matches (between 3rd and 15th so far); Universitatea Craiova are 3rd after 12 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: CFR 1907 Cluj 12, Universitatea Craiova 12.
Universitatea Craiova score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); CFR 1907 Cluj have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
CFR 1907 Cluj
- vs Oțelul21 Nov · Liga Iwin 53%
- at FC Voluntari28 Nov · Liga Iwin 46%
- vs Rapid5 Dec · Liga Iwin 35%
Universitatea Craiova
- at Uta Arad21 Nov · Liga Iwin 49%
- at Brighton26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.