Vasas
vs
Ferencvarosi TC
NB I prediction
Our model says: Vasas 1–2 Ferencvarosi TC
The model makes it 34% Vasas, 27% draw, 39% Ferencvarosi TC — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Vasas 1.36, Ferencvarosi TC 1.49.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Edge to Ferencvarosi TC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Vasas's rating is built from 10 Hungarian NB I matches and Ferencvarosi TC's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 455 matches.
Key facts
- Vasas are 3rd on 15 points from 10 games; Ferencvarosi TC are 5th on 14 points from 9 games — NB I.
- Vasas have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to MTK Budapest.
- Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Kisvarda FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Ferencvarosi TC 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 Vasas.
More Hungarian NB I predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ferencvarosi TC at 39% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC
Vasas
NB I
- L0-1away to MTK Budapest16 October 2026
- D1-1Kisvarda FC10 October 2026
- W4-2away to Debreceni VSC19 September 2026
- W3-2Nyiregyhaza4 September 2026
- L1-3away to Ujpest29 August 2026
Ferencvarosi TC
NB I
- D1-1away to Kisvarda FC18 October 2026
- D1-1Debreceni VSC10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Nyiregyhaza20 September 2026
- D2-2Ujpest6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Gyori ETO FC3 September 2026
What these results say
- Vasas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vasas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Vasas.
- Ferencvarosi TC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vasas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 15 |
| 5 | Ferencvarosi TC | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasas vs Ferencvarosi TC
- 2 August 2026Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 VasasNB I
- 22 April 2023Vasas 0–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 28 January 2023Ferencvarosi TC 0–0 VasasNB I
- 31 August 2022Vasas 0–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 9 February 2022Vasas 0–2 Ferencvarosi TCMagyar Kupa
- 12 May 2018Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 VasasNB I
Leading scorers: Vasas and Ferencvarosi TC
Vasas
GoalsAssists
- M. Kovácsréti21
Ferencvarosi TC
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vasas carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.67 for Ferencvarosi TC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Vasas and 1.49 for Ferencvarosi TC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasas rate 0.75 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.76 and 1.09.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vasas, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vasas a 8.8% chance of the title and Ferencvarosi TC 29.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ferencvarosi TC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Vasas against 1.49 for Ferencvarosi TC. Vasas's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.09 for Ferencvarosi TC.
How the model reaches 39% for Ferencvarosi TC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Ferencvarosi TC to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Vasas's ratings add 18 points and Ferencvarosi TC's ratings take away 11 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Vasas's ratings50%+18
- Ferencvarosi TC's ratings39%−11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vasas at home · Ferencvarosi TC away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
VasasFerencvarosi TC
Vasas are 3rd after 10 NB I matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Ferencvarosi TC are 5th after 9 (between 3rd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Vasas 10, Ferencvarosi TC 9.
Vasas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Ferencvarosi TC have let in 1 there.
Ferencvarosi TC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Vasas have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Vasas
- at Zalaegerszegi TE21 Nov · NB Iwin 42%
- vs Budapest Honved28 Nov · NB Iwin 49%
- at Puskas Academy5 Dec · NB Iwin 31%
Ferencvarosi TC
- vs Gyori ETO FC21 Nov · NB Iwin 41%
- vs Celje26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.