Regular Season - 8 · 21 November 2026, 16:30 UTC

ES Zarzis vs US Ben Guerdane Ligue 1 prediction

Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium, Zarzis

Our model says: ES Zarzis 2–1 US Ben Guerdane

The model makes it 37% ES Zarzis, 27% draw, 36% US Ben Guerdane — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: ES Zarzis 1.50, US Ben Guerdane 1.45.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: ES Zarzis and US Ben Guerdane are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. ES Zarzis's rating is built from 36 Ligue 1 (Tunisia) matches and US Ben Guerdane's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • ES Zarzis are 13th on 6 points from 7 games; US Ben Guerdane are top on 17 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
  • ES Zarzis have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to ES Metlaoui.
  • US Ben Guerdane are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Stade Tunisien.
  • Last 6 meetings: US Ben Guerdane 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended US Ben Guerdane 0–0 ES Zarzis.

More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: ES Zarzis vs US Ben Guerdane

60%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

ES Zarzis win Draw US Ben Guerdane win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 0–17%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 2–06%

Scores read ES Zarzis first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

ES Zarzis at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into ES Zarzis vs US Ben Guerdane

ES Zarzis

Ligue 1

  • L1-2away to ES Metlaoui8 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Stade Tunisien29 October 2026
  • W2-0ES Hammam-Sousse11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Club Africain20 September 2026
  • L1-2US Monastirienne16 September 2026

US Ben Guerdane

Ligue 1

  • W1-0Stade Tunisien23 October 2026
  • W2-0away to ES Hammam-Sousse17 October 2026
  • W2-1Club Africain10 October 2026
  • W1-0CS Hammam-Lif20 September 2026
  • D1-1CS Sfaxien16 September 2026

What these results say

  • ES Zarzis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ES Zarzis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • US Ben Guerdane went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • US Ben Guerdane scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • US Ben Guerdane won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Tunisia Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13ES Zarzis720568-26
1US Ben Guerdane7520126+617

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

ES Zarzis

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today

Win 11%
Draw 21%
Defeat 28%

US Ben Guerdane

Chance to finish in the top two · 49% today

Win 63%
Draw 47%
Defeat 37%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: ES Zarzis vs US Ben Guerdane

  • 31 January 2026US Ben Guerdane 0–0 ES ZarzisLigue 1
  • 28 August 2025ES Zarzis 1–1 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
  • 3 May 2025US Ben Guerdane 3–2 ES ZarzisLigue 1
  • 28 December 2024ES Zarzis 2–2 US Ben GuerdaneLigue 1
  • 28 December 2017ES Zarzis 0–2 US BEN GuerdaneLigue 1
  • 16 August 2017US BEN Guerdane 0–0 ES ZarzisLigue 1

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour US Ben Guerdane (1st, with ES Zarzis 13th), while our numbers lean to ES Zarzis. ES Zarzis rate 0.59 in attack and 1.80 in defence, US Ben Guerdane 0.67 and 1.56 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ES Zarzis a 0% chance of the title and US Ben Guerdane 27.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on ES Zarzis v US Ben Guerdane has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is US Ben Guerdane's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. ES Zarzis win37%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. US Ben Guerdane win36%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

ES Zarzis US Ben Guerdane
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.67
1.8 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.56
1.50 Model expected goals (this match) 1.45

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ES Zarzis the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for ES Zarzis against 1.45 for US Ben Guerdane. ES Zarzis's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.56 for US Ben Guerdane.

ES Zarzis carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.43 for US Ben Guerdane. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for ES Zarzis to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ES Zarzis to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, ES Zarzis's ratings take away 4 points and US Ben Guerdane's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. ES Zarzis's ratings41%−4
  5. US Ben Guerdane's ratings37%−4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

ES ZarzisUS Ben Guerdane
7Matches7
2W 0D 5LRecord5W 2D 0L
6 0.9 per gameGoals scored12 1.7 per game
8 1.1 per gameGoals conceded6 0.9 per game
2 of 7Clean sheets3 of 7
2 of 7Failed to score0 of 7
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
17 2.4 per gameYellow cards19 2.7 per game
2Red cards0

ES Zarzis at home · US Ben Guerdane away

3Played3
2W 0D 1LRecord2W 1D 0L
4–2Goals for – against7–4
2 of 3Clean sheets1 of 3

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Zarzis 7, US Ben Guerdane 7.

ES Zarzis scored 001113
US Ben Guerdane conceded 111120

ES Zarzis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); US Ben Guerdane have let in 0 there.

US Ben Guerdane scored 042132
ES Zarzis conceded 030310

US Ben Guerdane score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); ES Zarzis have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

ES Zarzis

  • at CA Bizertin28 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
  • vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer5 Dec · Ligue 1win 36%
  • at ES Tunis12 Dec · Ligue 1win 18%
  • vs ES Sahel19 Dec · Ligue 1win 49%
  • at Jeunesse Sportive Omrane26 Dec · Ligue 1win 30%

US Ben Guerdane

  • at ES Metlaoui28 Nov · Ligue 1win 43%
  • vs CA Bizertin5 Dec · Ligue 1win 55%
  • at Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer12 Dec · Ligue 1win 28%
  • vs ES Tunis19 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
  • at ES Sahel26 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.