Dynamo Dresden
vs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Dynamo Dresden 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
The model makes it 44% Dynamo Dresden, 26% draw, 30% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dynamo Dresden 1.81, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Dynamo Dresden's rating is built from 42 2. Bundesliga matches and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 688 matches.
Key facts
- Dynamo Dresden are 11th on 8 points from 8 games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 10th on 9 points from 8 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Dynamo Dresden have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to 1. FC Magdeburg.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Eintracht Braunschweig.
- Last 6 meetings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Dynamo Dresden 2–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dynamo Dresden at 44% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Dynamo Dresden
2. Bundesliga
- W2-01. FC Magdeburg18 October 2026
- D1-1away to VfL Osnabrück10 October 2026
- L1-2Hertha BSC19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Braunschweig12 September 2026
- L1-2VfL Bochum5 September 2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2. Bundesliga
- W2-0Eintracht Braunschweig17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hertha BSC11 October 2026
- D1-11. FC Magdeburg18 September 2026
- D1-1away to VfL Bochum12 September 2026
- L0-11. FC Heidenheim6 September 2026
What these results say
- Dynamo Dresden scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 17 January 2026Dynamo Dresden 2–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 3 August 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–2 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 9 June 2020Dynamo Dresden 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 18 October 2019SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 4 April 2019SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 30 September 2018Dynamo Dresden 0–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Dynamo Dresden
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
GoalsAssists
- F. Klaus71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dynamo Dresden carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.46 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.40 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dynamo Dresden rate 0.71 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SpVgg Greuther Fürth rate 0.67 and 1.47.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SpVgg Greuther Fürth, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dynamo Dresden a 0.3% chance of the title and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo Dresden the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden against 1.40 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Dynamo Dresden's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.47 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
How the model reaches 44% for Dynamo Dresden to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Dynamo Dresden to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Dynamo Dresden's ratings take away 20 points and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Dynamo Dresden's ratings23%−20
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth's ratings44%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dynamo Dresden at home · SpVgg Greuther Fürth away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Dynamo DresdenSpVgg Greuther Fürth
Dynamo Dresden are 11th after 8 2. Bundesliga matches (between 11th and 17th so far); SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 10th after 8 (between 5th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Dynamo Dresden 8, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 8.
Dynamo Dresden score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); SpVgg Greuther Fürth have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Dynamo Dresden
- at 1. FC Kaiserslautern22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 26%
- vs FC St. Pauli28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
- at Arminia Bielefeld6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 31%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- at Hannover 9621 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Arminia Bielefeld29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
- at 1. FC Kaiserslautern6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.