Regular Season - 9 · 24 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga prediction

Olympiastadion, Berlin

Our model says: Hertha BSC 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld

The model makes it 52% Hertha BSC, 23% draw, 25% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 1.92, 4.35 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Hertha BSC 2.16, Arminia Bielefeld 1.33.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.

Model confidence: High.

Edge to Hertha BSC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Hertha BSC are top on 21 points from 7 games; Arminia Bielefeld are 9th on 8 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
  • Hertha BSC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
  • Arminia Bielefeld have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to VfL Bochum.
  • Last 6 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Arminia Bielefeld 6–1 Hertha BSC.

More 2. Bundesliga predictions

All 2. Bundesliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld

66%
Both teams to score
68%
Over 2.5 goals
32%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Hertha BSC win Draw Arminia Bielefeld win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 2–07%
  4. 3–17%
  5. 2–26%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Hertha BSC first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 50%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hertha BSC at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld

Hertha BSC

  • W2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth11 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden19 September 2026
  • W3-1away to VfL Osnabrück13 September 2026
  • W2-11. FC Magdeburg6 September 2026
  • W5-3away to Eintracht Braunschweig28 August 2026

Arminia Bielefeld

  • W1-0away to VfL Bochum11 October 2026
  • D2-21. FC Heidenheim20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to SV Darmstadt 9811 September 2026
  • D2-2FC St. Pauli4 September 2026
  • L1-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Hertha BSC won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Hertha BSC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Hertha BSC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Arminia Bielefeld scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Arminia Bielefeld failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Arminia Bielefeld conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Hertha BSC7700198+1121
9Arminia Bielefeld72231112-18

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Hertha BSC

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 38% today

Win 41%
Draw 35%
Defeat 33%

Arminia Bielefeld

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today

Win 9%
Draw 11%
Defeat 15%

From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld

  • 17 May 2026Arminia Bielefeld 6–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • 19 December 2025Hertha BSC 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • 30 April 2022Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
  • 11 December 2021Hertha Berlin 2–0 Arminia BielefeldBundesliga
  • 9 May 2021Hertha Berlin 0–0 Arminia BielefeldBundesliga
  • 10 January 2021Arminia Bielefeld 1–0 Hertha BerlinBundesliga

Leading scorers: Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld

Hertha BSC

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brekalo45
  • J. Þorsteinsson31
  • O. Adewumi30

Arminia Bielefeld

GoalsAssists

  • J. Grodowski51

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Hertha BSC carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.49 for Arminia Bielefeld. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.16 goals for Hertha BSC and 1.33 for Arminia Bielefeld. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Hertha BSC rate 0.85 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arminia Bielefeld rate 0.72 and 1.47.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hertha BSC a 38% chance of the title and Arminia Bielefeld 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Hertha BSC the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Hertha BSC against 1.33 for Arminia Bielefeld. Hertha BSC's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.47 for Arminia Bielefeld.

Season stats

Hertha BSCArminia Bielefeld
7Matches7
7W 0D 0LRecord2W 2D 3L
19 2.7 per gameGoals scored11 1.6 per game
8 1.1 per gameGoals conceded12 1.7 per game
1 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7
0 of 7Failed to score0 of 7
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
19 2.7 per gameYellow cards13 1.9 per game
2Red cards0
4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-4-2 3×

Hertha BSC at home · Arminia Bielefeld away

3Played4
3W 0D 0LRecord1W 0D 3L
8–3Goals for – against4–8
0 of 3Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Position by match

Hertha BSCArminia Bielefeld

151018 Hertha BSC, match 1, 7 August 2026: at VfL Bochum 0-1 → 1stHertha BSC, match 2, 15 August 2026: vs 1. FC Heidenheim 4-1 → 2ndHertha BSC, match 3, 28 August 2026: at Eintracht Braunschweig 3-5 → 1stHertha BSC, match 4, 6 September 2026: vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1 → 1stHertha BSC, match 5, 13 September 2026: at VfL Osnabrück 1-3 → 1stHertha BSC, match 6, 19 September 2026: at Dynamo Dresden 1-2 → 1stHertha BSC, match 7, 11 October 2026: vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 → 1stArminia Bielefeld, match 1, 8 August 2026: at Karlsruher SC 2-1 → 17thArminia Bielefeld, match 2, 16 August 2026: vs Energie Cottbus 3-0 → 5thArminia Bielefeld, match 3, 29 August 2026: at 1. FC Nürnberg 4-1 → 8thArminia Bielefeld, match 4, 4 September 2026: vs FC St. Pauli 2-2 → 7thArminia Bielefeld, match 5, 11 September 2026: at SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 → 11thArminia Bielefeld, match 6, 20 September 2026: vs 1. FC Heidenheim 2-2 → 12thArminia Bielefeld, match 7, 11 October 2026: at VfL Bochum 0-1 → 8th 1234567 151018 Hertha BSC, match 1, 7 August 2026: at VfL Bochum 0-1 → 1stHertha BSC, match 2, 15 August 2026: vs 1. FC Heidenheim 4-1 → 2ndHertha BSC, match 3, 28 August 2026: at Eintracht Braunschweig 3-5 → 1stHertha BSC, match 4, 6 September 2026: vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2-1 → 1stHertha BSC, match 5, 13 September 2026: at VfL Osnabrück 1-3 → 1stHertha BSC, match 6, 19 September 2026: at Dynamo Dresden 1-2 → 1stHertha BSC, match 7, 11 October 2026: vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 → 1stArminia Bielefeld, match 1, 8 August 2026: at Karlsruher SC 2-1 → 17thArminia Bielefeld, match 2, 16 August 2026: vs Energie Cottbus 3-0 → 5thArminia Bielefeld, match 3, 29 August 2026: at 1. FC Nürnberg 4-1 → 8thArminia Bielefeld, match 4, 4 September 2026: vs FC St. Pauli 2-2 → 7thArminia Bielefeld, match 5, 11 September 2026: at SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 → 11thArminia Bielefeld, match 6, 20 September 2026: vs 1. FC Heidenheim 2-2 → 12thArminia Bielefeld, match 7, 11 October 2026: at VfL Bochum 0-1 → 8th 1234567

Hertha BSC are 1st after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Arminia Bielefeld are 8th after 7 (between 5th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Hertha BSC 7, Arminia Bielefeld 7.

Hertha BSC scored 224235
Arminia Bielefeld conceded 233122

Hertha BSC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Arminia Bielefeld have let in 2 there.

Arminia Bielefeld scored 211204
Hertha BSC conceded 202203

Arminia Bielefeld score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Hertha BSC have let in 3 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Hertha BSC

  • at 1. FC Kaiserslautern31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
  • vs VfL Wolfsburg7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
  • at Energie Cottbus22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 42%
  • vs Karlsruher SC28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 62%

Arminia Bielefeld

  • vs Eintracht Braunschweig30 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
  • at Holstein Kiel7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
  • vs 1. FC Magdeburg20 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
  • at SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.