FC St. Pauli
vs
1. FC Nürnberg
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FC St. Pauli 2–1 1. FC Nürnberg
The model makes it 41% FC St. Pauli, 27% draw, 32% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 1.64, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- FC St. Pauli are 7th on 11 points from 8 games; 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd on 18 points from 8 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- FC St. Pauli are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Hannover 96.
- 1. FC Nürnberg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Energie Cottbus.
- Last 6 meetings: FC St. Pauli 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 March 2024, ended FC Nurnberg 0–2 FC St. Pauli.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC St. Pauli at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg
FC St. Pauli
- D1-1away to Hannover 9617 October 2026
- W2-0Karlsruher SC11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Energie Cottbus20 September 2026
- W1-0VfL Wolfsburg12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld4 September 2026
1. FC Nürnberg
- D1-1away to Energie Cottbus16 October 2026
- D4-4VfL Wolfsburg10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Karlsruher SC19 September 2026
- W2-1Hannover 9611 September 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel5 September 2026
What these results say
- FC St. Pauli went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC St. Pauli had two goals or fewer.
- 1. FC Nürnberg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg
- 16 March 2024FC Nurnberg 0–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 7 October 2023FC St. Pauli 5–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
- 29 January 2023FC Nurnberg 0–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 16 July 2022FC St. Pauli 3–2 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
- 29 April 2022FC St. Pauli 1–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
- 28 November 2021FC Nurnberg 2–3 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Nürnberg
FC St. Pauli
GoalsAssists
- Abdoulie Ceesay40
1. FC Nürnberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Zoma70
- P. Scobel51
- A. Marhiev32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC St. Pauli carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.65 for 1. FC Nürnberg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.38 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC St. Pauli rate 0.73 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Nürnberg rate 0.87 and 1.30.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour 1. FC Nürnberg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC St. Pauli a 3.1% chance of the title and 1. FC Nürnberg 22.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC St. Pauli the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for FC St. Pauli against 1.38 for 1. FC Nürnberg. FC St. Pauli's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.3 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC St. Pauli at home · 1. FC Nürnberg away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC St. Pauli1. FC Nürnberg
FC St. Pauli are 7th after 8 2. Bundesliga matches (between 7th and 16th so far); 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd after 8 (between 1st and 2nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: FC St. Pauli 8, 1. FC Nürnberg 8.
FC St. Pauli score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); 1. FC Nürnberg have let in 2 there.
1. FC Nürnberg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); FC St. Pauli have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC St. Pauli
- at 1. FC Magdeburg8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- vs VfL Bochum21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 51%
- at Dynamo Dresden28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
1. FC Nürnberg
- vs SV Darmstadt 987 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 57%
- vs Eintracht Braunschweig21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 59%
- at 1. FC Heidenheim27 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 29%
- vs VfL Bochum6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.