SpVgg Greuther Fürth
vs
Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–0 Holstein Kiel
The model makes it 43% SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 28% draw, 29% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.50, Holstein Kiel 1.14.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 9th on 9 points from 8 games; Holstein Kiel are 16th on 5 points from 8 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Eintracht Braunschweig.
- Holstein Kiel have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Hertha BSC.
- Last 6 meetings: Holstein Kiel 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Holstein Kiel 1–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- W2-0Eintracht Braunschweig17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hertha BSC11 October 2026
- D1-11. FC Magdeburg18 September 2026
- D1-1away to VfL Bochum12 September 2026
- L0-11. FC Heidenheim6 September 2026
Holstein Kiel
- D0-0Hertha BSC16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Eintracht Braunschweig9 October 2026
- D1-1VfL Osnabrück19 September 2026
- L0-1away to 1. FC Heidenheim13 September 2026
- D2-21. FC Nürnberg5 September 2026
What these results say
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Holstein Kiel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Holstein Kiel conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Holstein Kiel had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel
- 31 January 2026Holstein Kiel 1–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 24 August 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 28 January 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 5 August 2023Holstein Kiel 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 28 January 2023Holstein Kiel 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 16 July 2022SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
GoalsAssists
- F. Klaus71
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SpVgg Greuther Fürth carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.43 for Holstein Kiel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.14 for Holstein Kiel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth rate 0.67 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Holstein Kiel rate 0.55 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 0.1% chance of the title and Holstein Kiel 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.14 for Holstein Kiel. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.3 for Holstein Kiel.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home · Holstein Kiel away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SpVgg Greuther FürthHolstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 9th after 8 2. Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 15th so far); Holstein Kiel are 16th after 8 (between 2nd and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 8, Holstein Kiel 8.
Holstein Kiel score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); SpVgg Greuther Fürth have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- at Dynamo Dresden6 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
- at Hannover 9621 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Arminia Bielefeld29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
- at 1. FC Kaiserslautern6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 25%
Holstein Kiel
- vs Arminia Bielefeld7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- at VfL Wolfsburg21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 20%
- vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 31%
- at Karlsruher SC6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.