SV Darmstadt 98
vs
FC St. Pauli
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SV Darmstadt 98 1–2 FC St. Pauli
The model makes it 30% SV Darmstadt 98, 27% draw, 43% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: SV Darmstadt 98 1.26, FC St. Pauli 1.60.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC St. Pauli: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SV Darmstadt 98 are 14th on 7 points from 7 games; FC St. Pauli are 7th on 10 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Energie Cottbus.
- FC St. Pauli are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Karlsruher SC.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 May 2023, ended SV Darmstadt 98 0–3 FC St. Pauli.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC St. Pauli at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98
- W3-1Energie Cottbus10 October 2026
- L1-5away to VfL Wolfsburg18 September 2026
- W2-1Arminia Bielefeld11 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern5 September 2026
- L0-1Hannover 9630 August 2026
FC St. Pauli
- W2-0Karlsruher SC11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Energie Cottbus20 September 2026
- W1-0VfL Wolfsburg12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld4 September 2026
- L1-21. FC Kaiserslautern30 August 2026
What these results say
- SV Darmstadt 98 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SV Darmstadt 98 had three goals or more.
- FC St. Pauli scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SV Darmstadt 98
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
FC St. Pauli
Chance to finish in the top four · 28% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli
- 6 May 2023SV Darmstadt 98 0–3 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 29 October 2022FC St. Pauli 1–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 23 April 2022FC St. Pauli 1–2 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 20 November 2021SV Darmstadt 98 4–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 20 February 2021FC St. Pauli 3–2 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 24 October 2020SV Darmstadt 98 2–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
FC St. Pauli
GoalsAssists
- Abdoulie Ceesay30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SV Darmstadt 98 carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.64 for FC St. Pauli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.60 for FC St. Pauli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SV Darmstadt 98 rate 0.65 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC St. Pauli rate 0.73 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 0% chance of the title and FC St. Pauli 2.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC St. Pauli the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.60 for FC St. Pauli. SV Darmstadt 98's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.12 for FC St. Pauli.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SV Darmstadt 98 at home · FC St. Pauli away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SV Darmstadt 98FC St. Pauli
SV Darmstadt 98 are 13th after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 18th so far); FC St. Pauli are 7th after 7 (between 7th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: SV Darmstadt 98 7, FC St. Pauli 7.
SV Darmstadt 98 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); FC St. Pauli have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SV Darmstadt 98
- at SV Elversberg27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 13%
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- at 1. FC Nürnberg7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 21%
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim20 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 28%
- at VfL Bochum27 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 29%
FC St. Pauli
- vs 1. FC Nürnberg1 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 42%
- at 1. FC Magdeburg8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- vs VfL Bochum21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 49%
- at Dynamo Dresden28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.