Regular Season - 9 · 24 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

1. FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus 2. Bundesliga prediction

Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

Our model says: 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1 Energie Cottbus

The model makes it 57% 1. FC Heidenheim, 21% draw, 22% Energie Cottbus — fair odds of 1.75, 4.76 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.57, Energie Cottbus 1.40.

Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.

Model confidence: High.

Edge to 1. FC Heidenheim: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • 1. FC Heidenheim are 3rd on 14 points from 7 games; Energie Cottbus are 8th on 8 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
  • 1. FC Heidenheim are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
  • Energie Cottbus have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to SV Darmstadt 98.

More 2. Bundesliga predictions

All 2. Bundesliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus

70%
Both teams to score
76%
Over 2.5 goals
24%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

1. FC Heidenheim win Draw Energie Cottbus win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 3–17%
  3. 1–17%
  4. 2–06%
  5. 2–26%
  6. 3–05%
  7. 3–25%

Scores read 1. FC Heidenheim first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 54%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 57% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into 1. FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus

1. FC Heidenheim

  • D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern9 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld20 September 2026
  • W1-0Holstein Kiel13 September 2026
  • W1-0away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 September 2026
  • W5-3Dynamo Dresden29 August 2026

Energie Cottbus

  • L1-3away to SV Darmstadt 9810 October 2026
  • D1-1FC St. Pauli20 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Karlsruher SC13 September 2026
  • D4-4away to VfL Wolfsburg5 September 2026
  • L3-4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 August 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Heidenheim went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • 1. FC Heidenheim scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Energie Cottbus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Energie Cottbus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Energie Cottbus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
31. FC Heidenheim74211412+214
8Energie Cottbus72231516-18

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

1. FC Heidenheim

Chance to finish in the top four · 67% today

Win 70%
Draw 62%
Defeat 60%

Energie Cottbus

Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today

Win 13%
Draw 10%
Defeat 7%

From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Leading scorers: 1. FC Heidenheim and Energie Cottbus

1. FC Heidenheim

GoalsAssists

  • J. Schöppner30

Energie Cottbus

GoalsAssists

  • J. Butler41
  • T. Ciğerci41

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

1. FC Heidenheim carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.5 for Energie Cottbus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.57 goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.40 for Energie Cottbus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

1. FC Heidenheim rate 0.84 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Energie Cottbus rate 0.85 and 1.77.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 19.8% chance of the title and Energie Cottbus 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 1. FC Heidenheim the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.57 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.40 for Energie Cottbus. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.77 for Energie Cottbus.

Season stats

1. FC HeidenheimEnergie Cottbus
7Matches7
4W 2D 1LRecord2W 2D 3L
14 2.0 per gameGoals scored15 2.1 per game
12 1.7 per gameGoals conceded16 2.3 per game
3 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7
1 of 7Failed to score1 of 7
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
11 1.6 per gameYellow cards16 2.3 per game
4-4-2 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

1. FC Heidenheim at home · Energie Cottbus away

4Played4
3W 1D 0LRecord1W 1D 2L
10–6Goals for – against8–10
2 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Position by match

1. FC HeidenheimEnergie Cottbus

151018 1. FC Heidenheim, match 1, 8 August 2026: vs VfL Osnabrück 4-3 → 1st1. FC Heidenheim, match 2, 15 August 2026: at Hertha BSC 4-1 → 7th1. FC Heidenheim, match 3, 29 August 2026: vs Dynamo Dresden 5-3 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 4, 6 September 2026: at SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 5, 13 September 2026: vs Holstein Kiel 1-0 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 6, 20 September 2026: at Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 7, 9 October 2026: vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-0 → 3rdEnergie Cottbus, match 1, 9 August 2026: vs Hannover 96 3-1 → 2ndEnergie Cottbus, match 2, 16 August 2026: at Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 → 7thEnergie Cottbus, match 3, 29 August 2026: vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-4 → 9thEnergie Cottbus, match 4, 5 September 2026: at VfL Wolfsburg 4-4 → 10thEnergie Cottbus, match 5, 13 September 2026: at Karlsruher SC 0-3 → 7thEnergie Cottbus, match 6, 20 September 2026: vs FC St. Pauli 1-1 → 7thEnergie Cottbus, match 7, 10 October 2026: at SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 → 7th 1234567 151018 1. FC Heidenheim, match 1, 8 August 2026: vs VfL Osnabrück 4-3 → 1st1. FC Heidenheim, match 2, 15 August 2026: at Hertha BSC 4-1 → 7th1. FC Heidenheim, match 3, 29 August 2026: vs Dynamo Dresden 5-3 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 4, 6 September 2026: at SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 5, 13 September 2026: vs Holstein Kiel 1-0 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 6, 20 September 2026: at Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 7, 9 October 2026: vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-0 → 3rdEnergie Cottbus, match 1, 9 August 2026: vs Hannover 96 3-1 → 2ndEnergie Cottbus, match 2, 16 August 2026: at Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 → 7thEnergie Cottbus, match 3, 29 August 2026: vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-4 → 9thEnergie Cottbus, match 4, 5 September 2026: at VfL Wolfsburg 4-4 → 10thEnergie Cottbus, match 5, 13 September 2026: at Karlsruher SC 0-3 → 7thEnergie Cottbus, match 6, 20 September 2026: vs FC St. Pauli 1-1 → 7thEnergie Cottbus, match 7, 10 October 2026: at SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 → 7th 1234567

1. FC Heidenheim are 3rd after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 7th so far); Energie Cottbus are 7th after 7 (between 2nd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Heidenheim 7, Energie Cottbus 7.

1. FC Heidenheim scored 222215
Energie Cottbus conceded 134016

1. FC Heidenheim score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Energie Cottbus have let in 6 there.

Energie Cottbus scored 303343
1. FC Heidenheim conceded 232014

Energie Cottbus score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); 1. FC Heidenheim have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

1. FC Heidenheim

  • at Karlsruher SC31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 53%
  • vs Hannover 968 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 53%
  • at SV Darmstadt 9820 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
  • vs 1. FC Nürnberg27 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 46%

Energie Cottbus

  • vs VfL Bochum30 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
  • at Eintracht Braunschweig6 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
  • vs Hertha BSC22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
  • at 1. FC Magdeburg29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 27%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.