Regular Season - 9 · 23 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg 2. Bundesliga prediction

Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

Our model says: VfL Bochum 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg

The model makes it 29% VfL Bochum, 29% draw, 42% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: VfL Bochum 1.09, VfL Wolfsburg 1.41.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Edge to VfL Wolfsburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • VfL Bochum are 12th on 7 points from 7 games; VfL Wolfsburg are 5th on 12 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
  • VfL Bochum are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Arminia Bielefeld.
  • VfL Wolfsburg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-4 draw away to 1. FC Nürnberg.
  • Last 6 meetings: VfL Wolfsburg 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2025, ended VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 VfL Bochum.

More 2. Bundesliga predictions

All 2. Bundesliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg

51%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

VfL Bochum win Draw VfL Wolfsburg win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 0–09%
  5. 1–08%
  6. 0–28%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read VfL Bochum first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 35%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VfL Wolfsburg at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Bochum

  • L0-1Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Hannover 9620 September 2026
  • D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden5 September 2026
  • L0-1VfL Osnabrück28 August 2026

VfL Wolfsburg

  • D4-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg10 October 2026
  • W5-1SV Darmstadt 9818 September 2026
  • L0-1away to FC St. Pauli12 September 2026
  • D4-4Energie Cottbus5 September 2026
  • W5-2away to Karlsruher SC29 August 2026

What these results say

  • VfL Bochum conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • VfL Bochum failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • VfL Wolfsburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • VfL Wolfsburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for VfL Wolfsburg had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12VfL Bochum721457-27
5VfL Wolfsburg73311912+712

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

VfL Bochum

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 24% today

Win 17%
Draw 24%
Defeat 27%

VfL Wolfsburg

Chance to finish in the top four · 60% today

Win 66%
Draw 57%
Defeat 54%

From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg

  • 22 February 2025VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 VfL BochumBundesliga
  • 5 October 2024VfL Bochum 1–3 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 20 April 2024VfL Wolfsburg 1–0 VfL BochumBundesliga
  • 2 December 2023VfL Bochum 3–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 22 April 2023VfL Bochum 1–5 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
  • 29 October 2022VfL Wolfsburg 4–0 VfL BochumBundesliga

Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Bochum

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

VfL Wolfsburg

GoalsAssists

  • R. Glatzel41
  • A. Bernhardsson33

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

VfL Bochum carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.68 for VfL Wolfsburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for VfL Bochum and 1.41 for VfL Wolfsburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

VfL Bochum rate 0.56 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Wolfsburg rate 0.81 and 1.13.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VfL Bochum a 0.2% chance of the title and VfL Wolfsburg 12.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives VfL Wolfsburg the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for VfL Bochum against 1.41 for VfL Wolfsburg. VfL Bochum's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.13 for VfL Wolfsburg.

Season stats

VfL BochumVfL Wolfsburg
7Matches7
2W 1D 4LRecord3W 3D 1L
5 0.7 per gameGoals scored19 2.7 per game
7 1.0 per gameGoals conceded12 1.7 per game
1 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7
3 of 7Failed to score2 of 7
–Penalties scored2 of 2
22 3.1 per gameYellow cards15 2.1 per game
1Red cards1
4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-3-3 5×

VfL Bochum at home · VfL Wolfsburg away

4Played4
0W 1D 3LRecord2W 1D 1L
1–4Goals for – against10–7
0 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Position by match

VfL BochumVfL Wolfsburg

151018 VfL Bochum, match 1, 7 August 2026: vs Hertha BSC 0-1 → 18thVfL Bochum, match 2, 14 August 2026: at Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 → 7thVfL Bochum, match 3, 28 August 2026: vs VfL Osnabrück 0-1 → 8thVfL Bochum, match 4, 5 September 2026: at Dynamo Dresden 1-2 → 7thVfL Bochum, match 5, 12 September 2026: vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 → 6thVfL Bochum, match 6, 20 September 2026: at Hannover 96 2-1 → 9thVfL Bochum, match 7, 11 October 2026: vs Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 → 12thVfL Wolfsburg, match 1, 8 August 2026: vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-0 → 8thVfL Wolfsburg, match 2, 16 August 2026: at Hannover 96 0-1 → 4thVfL Wolfsburg, match 3, 29 August 2026: at Karlsruher SC 2-5 → 2ndVfL Wolfsburg, match 4, 5 September 2026: vs Energie Cottbus 4-4 → 3rdVfL Wolfsburg, match 5, 12 September 2026: at FC St. Pauli 1-0 → 5thVfL Wolfsburg, match 6, 18 September 2026: vs SV Darmstadt 98 5-1 → 4thVfL Wolfsburg, match 7, 10 October 2026: at 1. FC Nürnberg 4-4 → 5th 1234567 151018 VfL Bochum, match 1, 7 August 2026: vs Hertha BSC 0-1 → 18thVfL Bochum, match 2, 14 August 2026: at Eintracht Braunschweig 0-1 → 7thVfL Bochum, match 3, 28 August 2026: vs VfL Osnabrück 0-1 → 8thVfL Bochum, match 4, 5 September 2026: at Dynamo Dresden 1-2 → 7thVfL Bochum, match 5, 12 September 2026: vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 → 6thVfL Bochum, match 6, 20 September 2026: at Hannover 96 2-1 → 9thVfL Bochum, match 7, 11 October 2026: vs Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 → 12thVfL Wolfsburg, match 1, 8 August 2026: vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-0 → 8thVfL Wolfsburg, match 2, 16 August 2026: at Hannover 96 0-1 → 4thVfL Wolfsburg, match 3, 29 August 2026: at Karlsruher SC 2-5 → 2ndVfL Wolfsburg, match 4, 5 September 2026: vs Energie Cottbus 4-4 → 3rdVfL Wolfsburg, match 5, 12 September 2026: at FC St. Pauli 1-0 → 5thVfL Wolfsburg, match 6, 18 September 2026: vs SV Darmstadt 98 5-1 → 4thVfL Wolfsburg, match 7, 10 October 2026: at 1. FC Nürnberg 4-4 → 5th 1234567

VfL Bochum are 12th after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 6th and 18th so far); VfL Wolfsburg are 5th after 7 (between 2nd and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: VfL Bochum 7, VfL Wolfsburg 7.

VfL Bochum scored 130001
VfL Wolfsburg conceded 211322

VfL Bochum score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); VfL Wolfsburg have let in 1 there.

VfL Wolfsburg scored 433025
VfL Bochum conceded 113011

VfL Wolfsburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); VfL Bochum have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

VfL Bochum

  • vs FSV Mainz 0527 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 25%
  • at Energie Cottbus30 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 31%
  • vs Karlsruher SC8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 48%
  • at FC St. Pauli21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 23%
  • vs SV Darmstadt 9827 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 43%

VfL Wolfsburg

  • at SC Freiburg27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 15%
  • vs VfL Osnabrück31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 58%
  • at Hertha BSC7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
  • vs Holstein Kiel21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 55%
  • at Eintracht Braunschweig29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 46%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.