1. FC Nürnberg
vs
1. FC Kaiserslautern
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: 1. FC Nürnberg 1–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern
The model makes it 45% 1. FC Nürnberg, 28% draw, 27% 1. FC Kaiserslautern — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.55, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.06.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd on 17 points from 7 games; 1. FC Kaiserslautern are 6th on 12 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- 1. FC Nürnberg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-4 draw at home to VfL Wolfsburg.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to 1. FC Heidenheim.
- Last 6 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 3–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Nürnberg at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Nürnberg
- D4-4VfL Wolfsburg10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Karlsruher SC19 September 2026
- W2-1Hannover 9611 September 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel5 September 2026
- W4-1Arminia Bielefeld29 August 2026
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- D0-0away to 1. FC Heidenheim9 October 2026
- W1-0Eintracht Braunschweig19 September 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Magdeburg12 September 2026
- W3-0SV Darmstadt 985 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC St. Pauli30 August 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Nürnberg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 17 |
| 6 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
1. FC Nürnberg
Chance to finish in the top four · 64% today
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Chance to finish in the top four · 24% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
- 21 March 20261. FC Nürnberg 3–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 26 October 20251. FC Kaiserslautern 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 12 April 20251. FC Kaiserslautern 1–2 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 8 November 20241. FC Nürnberg 0–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 18 February 2024FC Nurnberg 1–1 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 5 December 2023FC Kaiserslautern 2–0 FC NurnbergDFB Pokal
Leading scorers: 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Nürnberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Zoma70
- P. Scobel51
- A. Marhiev32
1. FC Kaiserslautern
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Nürnberg carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.59 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.06 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Nürnberg rate 0.88 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Kaiserslautern rate 0.56 and 1.02.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 17.5% chance of the title and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Nürnberg the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.06 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.02 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
1. FC Nürnberg at home · 1. FC Kaiserslautern away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
1. FC Nürnberg1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); 1. FC Kaiserslautern are 4th after 7 (between 3rd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Nürnberg 7, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 7.
1. FC Nürnberg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); 1. FC Kaiserslautern have let in 0 there.
1. FC Kaiserslautern score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); 1. FC Nürnberg have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
1. FC Nürnberg
- at Bayer Leverkusen27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 10%
- at FC St. Pauli1 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
- vs SV Darmstadt 987 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 57%
- vs Eintracht Braunschweig21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 57%
- at 1. FC Heidenheim27 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 29%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- at Hannover 9627 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 30%
- vs Hertha BSC31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
- at VfL Osnabrück7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- vs Dynamo Dresden22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 45%
- at Holstein Kiel28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.