Bucaramanga
vs
Fortaleza FC
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Bucaramanga 1–0 Fortaleza FC
The model makes it 58% Bucaramanga, 25% draw, 17% Fortaleza FC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Bucaramanga 1.86, Fortaleza FC 0.79.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,688 settled matches.
Edge to Bucaramanga: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 29 October 2026. Bucaramanga's rating is built from 79 Colombian Primera A matches and Fortaleza FC's from 80, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,243 matches.
Key facts
- Bucaramanga are 6th on 25 points from 15 games; Fortaleza FC are 19th on 12 points from 15 games — Primera A.
- Bucaramanga are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Santa Fe.
- Fortaleza FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Deportivo Cali.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Fortaleza FC 2–1 Bucaramanga.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bucaramanga at 58% here. Across 5,105 settled matches (as of 29 October 2026), 1,276 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
Primera A
- L1-2away to Santa Fe27 October 2026
- L0-1away to Chico23 October 2026
- D1-1America de Cali18 October 2026
- D1-1Águilas Doradas13 October 2026
- W3-1Junior4 October 2026
Fortaleza FC
Primera A
- D1-1Deportivo Cali25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Internacional de Bogota20 October 2026
- D1-1Millonarios9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pasto4 October 2026
- D2-2Deportes Tolima27 September 2026
What these results say
- Bucaramanga conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucaramanga | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 25 |
| 19 | Fortaleza FC | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC
- 3 May 2026Fortaleza FC 2–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 30 November 2025Fortaleza FC 0–2 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 26 November 2025Bucaramanga 1–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 27 September 2025Fortaleza FC 2–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 14 April 2025Bucaramanga 4–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 10 November 2024Bucaramanga 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
GoalsAssists
- L. Pons135
- E. Batalla116
Fortaleza FC
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bucaramanga carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.35 for Fortaleza FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Bucaramanga and 0.79 for Fortaleza FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bucaramanga rate 0.77 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortaleza FC rate 0.61 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bucaramanga a 0.4% chance of the title and Fortaleza FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,464 correct results out of 5,119 settled predictions (48%), with 510 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucaramanga the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Bucaramanga against 0.79 for Fortaleza FC. Bucaramanga's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.67 for Fortaleza FC.
How the model reaches 58% for Bucaramanga to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Bucaramanga to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Bucaramanga's ratings add 7 points and Fortaleza FC's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Bucaramanga's ratings51%+7
- Fortaleza FC's ratings58%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bucaramanga at home · Fortaleza FC away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Bucaramanga 33, Fortaleza FC 34.
Bucaramanga score most often in the 31–45 minute window (14 goals); Fortaleza FC have let in 5 there.
Fortaleza FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Bucaramanga have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.