Regular Season - 12 · 24 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo Eerste Divisie prediction

M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht

Our model says: Dordrecht 1–2 VVV Venlo

The model makes it 27% Dordrecht, 26% draw, 47% VVV Venlo — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Dordrecht 1.17, VVV Venlo 1.73.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Medium.

One-sided: VVV Venlo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Dordrecht are 19th on 8 points from 10 games; VVV Venlo are 3rd on 21 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Dordrecht have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Emmen.
  • VVV Venlo have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Jong Ajax.
  • Last 6 meetings: Dordrecht 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 December 2025, ended VVV Venlo 3–1 Dordrecht.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo

57%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Dordrecht win Draw VVV Venlo win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–210%
  3. 0–19%
  4. 0–28%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 0–06%
  7. 1–06%

Scores read Dordrecht first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 42%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VVV Venlo at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo

Dordrecht

  • L0-3Emmen9 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Den Bosch3 October 2026
  • W3-2Almere City FC25 September 2026
  • L0-3away to FC OSS18 September 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Eindhoven11 September 2026

VVV Venlo

  • W3-0away to Jong Ajax9 October 2026
  • W2-0Roda4 October 2026
  • L2-3away to FC Volendam26 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Jong Utrecht18 September 2026
  • W3-1FC OSS11 September 2026

What these results say

  • Dordrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dordrecht failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Dordrecht had three goals or more.
  • VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • VVV Venlo won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for VVV Venlo had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Dordrecht102261327-148
3VVV Venlo107032614+1221

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Dordrecht

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 61% today

Win 53%
Draw 62%
Defeat 66%

VVV Venlo

Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today

Win 65%
Draw 59%
Defeat 55%

From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo

  • 19 December 2025VVV Venlo 3–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 3 October 2025Dordrecht 2–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 14 March 2025Dordrecht 4–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 18 October 2024VVV Venlo 2–3 DordrechtEerste Divisie
  • 16 February 2024Dordrecht 1–0 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
  • 8 December 2023VVV Venlo 3–1 DordrechtEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Dordrecht and VVV Venlo

Dordrecht

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

VVV Venlo

GoalsAssists

  • E. Zuliani41

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Dordrecht carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.44 for VVV Venlo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Dordrecht and 1.73 for VVV Venlo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Dordrecht rate 0.47 in attack and 2.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VVV Venlo rate 0.67 and 1.53.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dordrecht a 0% chance of the title and VVV Venlo 16.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives VVV Venlo the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Dordrecht against 1.73 for VVV Venlo. Dordrecht's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.53 for VVV Venlo.

Season stats

DordrechtVVV Venlo
10Matches10
2W 2D 6LRecord7W 0D 3L
13 1.3 per gameGoals scored26 2.6 per game
27 2.7 per gameGoals conceded14 1.4 per game
0 of 10Clean sheets4 of 10
3 of 10Failed to score0 of 10
–Penalties scored2 of 2
24 2.4 per gameYellow cards13 1.3 per game
2Red cards0
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Dordrecht at home · VVV Venlo away

5Played5
2W 0D 3LRecord3W 0D 2L
8–13Goals for – against12–8
0 of 5Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Dordrecht 10, VVV Venlo 10.

Dordrecht scored 423212
VVV Venlo conceded 326013

Dordrecht score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); VVV Venlo have let in 3 there.

VVV Venlo scored 334536
Dordrecht conceded 643319

VVV Venlo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Dordrecht have let in 9 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Dordrecht

  • at Jong Utrecht2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
  • vs NAC Breda6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 23%
  • vs Heracles14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
  • at Helmond Sport20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 25%

VVV Venlo

  • vs Vitesse28 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 48%
  • at MVV31 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
  • vs Jong PSV U216 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 54%
  • vs FC Eindhoven14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 56%
  • at Den Bosch20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.