Heracles
vs
Roda
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Heracles 2–0 Roda
The model makes it 60% Heracles, 24% draw, 16% Roda — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Heracles 1.93, Roda 0.75.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,455 settled matches.
One-sided: Heracles are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Heracles's rating is built from 11 Eerste Divisie matches and Roda's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Heracles are top on 28 points from 11 games; Roda are 6th on 19 points from 11 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Heracles are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-1 win away to MVV.
- Roda have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Jong Utrecht.
- Last 6 meetings: Heracles 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 April 2023, ended Heracles 1–0 Roda.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Heracles vs Roda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heracles at 60% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Heracles vs Roda
Heracles
Eerste Divisie
- W5-1away to MVV18 October 2026
- W3-0Waalwijk9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Helmond Sport2 October 2026
- W2-0Vitesse26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC18 September 2026
Roda
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1away to Jong Utrecht19 October 2026
- D1-1Jong PSV U219 October 2026
- L0-2away to VVV Venlo4 October 2026
- W2-0Waalwijk26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jong Ajax18 September 2026
What these results say
- Heracles scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Roda had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 13 | +23 | 28 |
| 6 | Roda | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Heracles vs Roda
- 14 April 2023Heracles 1–0 RodaEerste Divisie
- 11 December 2022Roda 1–3 HeraclesEerste Divisie
- 18 October 2022Roda 2–2 HeraclesKNVB Beker
- 2 March 2018Roda 0–3 HeraclesEredivisie
- 23 September 2017Heracles 2–1 RodaEredivisie
- 11 February 2017Heracles 2–2 RodaEredivisie
Leading scorers: Heracles and Roda
Heracles
GoalsAssists
- J. N'djoli122
- T. van Gilst72
Roda
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Heracles carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.39 for Roda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.93 goals for Heracles and 0.75 for Roda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heracles rate 0.95 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Roda rate 0.46 and 1.25.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heracles a 88.1% chance of the title and Roda 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heracles the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Heracles against 0.75 for Roda. Heracles's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.25 for Roda.
How the model reaches 60% for Heracles to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Heracles to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Heracles's ratings take away 8 points and Roda's ratings add 24 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Heracles's ratings36%−8
- Roda's ratings60%+24
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Heracles at home · Roda away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Heracles 11, Roda 11.
Heracles score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Roda have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Heracles
- at Dordrecht14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 61%
- vs Jong PSV U2120 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 70%
- at Jong Ajax27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 59%
Roda
- vs FC Volendam14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- at FC OSS20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 31%
- vs De Graafschap29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.