Regular Season - 14 · 6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC Eerste Divisie prediction

AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer

Our model says: Jong AZ 1–2 Almere City FC

The model makes it 35% Jong AZ, 26% draw, 39% Almere City FC — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Jong AZ 1.52, Almere City FC 1.65.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 940 settled matches.

Edge to Almere City FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Jong AZ's rating is built from 49 Eerste Divisie matches and Almere City FC's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Jong AZ are 11th on 14 points from 11 games; Almere City FC are 2nd on 22 points from 11 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
  • Jong AZ have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-4 draw away to VVV Venlo.
  • Almere City FC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Emmen.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 January 2026, ended Jong AZ 3–4 Almere City FC.

More Eerste Divisie predictions

All Eerste Divisie predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

64%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Jong AZ win Draw Almere City FC win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 0–16%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 0–26%

Scores read Jong AZ first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 47%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Almere City FC at 39% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

Jong AZ

Eerste Divisie

  • D4-4away to VVV Venlo16 October 2026
  • L0-1Den Bosch9 October 2026
  • W4-1FC Volendam18 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Jong PSV U2114 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Heracles11 September 2026

Almere City FC

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-2away to Emmen17 October 2026
  • W3-0FC Eindhoven9 October 2026
  • W1-0FC Volendam3 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Dordrecht25 September 2026
  • W1-0Heracles18 September 2026

What these results say

  • Jong AZ conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jong AZ failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jong AZ scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Almere City FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Jong AZ114252622+414
2Almere City FC11713239+1422

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

  • 26 January 2026Jong AZ 3–4 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 24 October 2025Almere City FC 1–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 7 April 2023Almere City FC 2–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 22 August 2022Jong AZ 3–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 2 July 2022Jong AZ 1–3 Almere City FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 6 May 2022Almere City FC 0–3 Jong AZEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Jong AZ and Almere City FC

Jong AZ

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.

Almere City FC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Druijf73
  • E. Poku43

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Jong AZ carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.5 for Almere City FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Jong AZ and 1.65 for Almere City FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Jong AZ rate 0.68 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Almere City FC rate 0.68 and 1.37.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jong AZ a 0% chance of the title and Almere City FC 5.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Almere City FC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Jong AZ against 1.65 for Almere City FC. Jong AZ's attack/defence rating is 0.68/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.37 for Almere City FC.

How the model reaches 39% for Almere City FC to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almere City FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Jong AZ's ratings add 32 points and Almere City FC's ratings take away 22 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Jong AZ's ratings61%+32
  4. Almere City FC's ratings39%−22

Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.

Season stats

Jong AZAlmere City FC
11Matches11
4W 2D 5LRecord7W 1D 3L
26 2.4 per gameGoals scored23 2.1 per game
22 2.0 per gameGoals conceded9 0.8 per game
0 of 11Clean sheets5 of 11
2 of 11Failed to score1 of 11
2 of 2Penalties scored0 of 2
15 1.4 per gameYellow cards14 1.3 per game
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Jong AZ at home · Almere City FC away

5Played6
2W 0D 3LRecord3W 1D 2L
7–6Goals for – against15–7
0 of 5Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Jong AZ 11, Almere City FC 11.

Jong AZ scored 362347
Almere City FC conceded 221221

Jong AZ score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Almere City FC have let in 1 there.

Almere City FC scored 321259
Jong AZ conceded 216463

Almere City FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Jong AZ have let in 3 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Jong AZ

  • at Vitesse20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
  • at Jong Ajax23 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
  • vs FC OSS27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 48%

Almere City FC

  • vs Helmond Sport14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 62%
  • vs NAC Breda20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 54%
  • at Jong Utrecht27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 44%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.