Delfin SC
vs
Orense SC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Delfin SC 2–1 Orense SC
The model makes it 41% Delfin SC, 27% draw, 32% Orense SC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Delfin SC 1.53, Orense SC 1.27.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Delfin SC's rating is built from 75 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Orense SC's from 76, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Delfin SC are 14th on 38 points from 36 games; Orense SC are 13th on 39 points from 36 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Delfin SC have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Mushuc Runa SC.
- Orense SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Deportivo Cuenca.
- Last 6 meetings: Orense SC 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 24 October 2026, ended Orense SC 4–0 Delfin SC.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Delfin SC vs Orense SC
Has the model earned this number?
Delfin SC at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Delfin SC vs Orense SC
Delfin SC
Liga Pro
- L1-2away to Mushuc Runa SC9 November 2026
- W3-1Deportivo Cuenca31 October 2026
- L0-4away to Orense SC24 October 2026
- W4-2Manta FC18 October 2026
- W3-2Mushuc Runa SC9 October 2026
Orense SC
Liga Pro
- L0-2away to Deportivo Cuenca8 November 2026
- D1-1Tecnico Universitario2 November 2026
- W4-0Delfin SC24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Mushuc Runa SC19 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Cuenca11 October 2026
What these results say
- Delfin SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Delfin SC had three goals or more.
- Delfin SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orense SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Orense SC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Delfin SC | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 38 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 36 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Delfin SC vs Orense SC
- 24 October 2026Orense SC 4–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 9 August 2026Delfin SC 1–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 19 April 2026Orense SC 0–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 26 August 2025Orense SC 3–1 Delfin SCLiga Pro
- 4 May 2025Delfin SC 0–0 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 1 November 2024Orense SC 0–0 Delfin SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Delfin SC and Orense SC
Delfin SC
GoalsAssists
- F. Ayunta111
Orense SC
GoalsAssists
- A. Herrera123
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Delfin SC the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Delfin SC against 1.27 for Orense SC. Delfin SC's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.68 for Orense SC.
How the model reaches 41% for Delfin SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Delfin SC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Delfin SC's ratings take away 2 points and Orense SC's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Delfin SC's ratings42%−2
- Orense SC's ratings41%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Delfin SC at home · Orense SC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Delfin SC 36, Orense SC 36.
Delfin SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Orense SC have let in 8 there.
Orense SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Delfin SC have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Delfin SC
- at Deportivo Cuenca6 Dec · Liga Prowin 25%
- vs Tecnico Universitario13 Dec · Liga Prowin 45%
Orense SC
- at Tecnico Universitario6 Dec · Liga Prowin 33%
- vs Manta FC13 Dec · Liga Prowin 51%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.