Barcelona SC
vs
Aucas
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Barcelona SC 1–0 Aucas
The model makes it 55% Barcelona SC, 25% draw, 20% Aucas — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Barcelona SC 1.85, Aucas 0.92.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Barcelona SC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Barcelona SC's rating is built from 75 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Aucas's from 76, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Barcelona SC are bottom on 49 points from 35 games; Aucas are 5th on 54 points from 36 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Barcelona SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to LDU de Quito.
- Aucas have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Independiente del Valle.
- Last 6 meetings: Barcelona SC 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 October 2026, ended Aucas 0–4 Barcelona SC.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Barcelona SC vs Aucas
Has the model earned this number?
Barcelona SC at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Barcelona SC vs Aucas
Barcelona SC
Liga Pro
- D1-1LDU de Quito8 November 2026
- L0-3away to Macara31 October 2026
- W4-0away to Aucas25 October 2026
- D1-1Universidad Catolica Quito18 October 2026
- L1-2away to LDU de Quito11 October 2026
Aucas
Liga Pro
- L2-4Independiente del Valle8 November 2026
- W2-1away to Universidad Catolica Quito1 November 2026
- L0-4Barcelona SC25 October 2026
- D1-1LDU de Quito17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente del Valle10 October 2026
What these results say
- Barcelona SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aucas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aucas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aucas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 39 | 32 | +7 | 49 |
| 5 | Aucas | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Barcelona SC vs Aucas
- 25 October 2026Aucas 0–4 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 7 September 2026Aucas 1–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 17 May 2026Barcelona SC 3–0 AucasLiga Pro
- 14 February 2026Barcelona SC 1–0 AucasFriendlies Clubs
- 28 September 2025Barcelona SC 1–1 AucasLiga Pro
- 1 June 2025Aucas 2–0 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Barcelona SC and Aucas
Barcelona SC
GoalsAssists
- D. Benedetto92
Aucas
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aucas (fifth, with Barcelona SC sixth), while our numbers lean to Barcelona SC. Barcelona SC rate 0.77 in attack and 1.16 in defence, Aucas 0.66 and 1.48 (lower is better in defence), so Barcelona SC have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barcelona SC the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Barcelona SC against 0.92 for Aucas. Barcelona SC's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.48 for Aucas.
How the model reaches 55% for Barcelona SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Barcelona SC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Barcelona SC's ratings add 5 points and Aucas's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Barcelona SC's ratings49%+5
- Aucas's ratings55%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Barcelona SC at home · Aucas away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Barcelona SC 35, Aucas 36.
Aucas score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Barcelona SC have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Barcelona SC
- vs Macara6 Dec · Liga Prowin 42%
- at Independiente del Valle13 Dec · Liga Prowin 22%
Aucas
- vs Universidad Catolica Quito6 Dec · Liga Prowin 34%
- at Macara13 Dec · Liga Prowin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.