Independiente del Valle
vs
Macara
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Independiente del Valle 2–1 Macara
The model makes it 53% Independiente del Valle, 23% draw, 24% Macara — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Independiente del Valle 2.21, Macara 1.31.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Independiente del Valle's rating is built from 75 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Macara's from 76, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Independiente del Valle are top on 84 points from 35 games; Macara are 2nd on 67 points from 36 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Independiente del Valle are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Aucas.
- Macara are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Universidad Catolica Quito.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente del Valle 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 October 2026, ended Macara 1–0 Independiente del Valle.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Independiente del Valle vs Macara
Has the model earned this number?
Independiente del Valle at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Independiente del Valle vs Macara
Independiente del Valle
Liga Pro
- W4-2away to Aucas8 November 2026
- W2-0LDU de Quito1 November 2026
- D0-0Universidad Catolica Quito23 October 2026
- L0-1away to Macara17 October 2026
- W2-1Aucas10 October 2026
Macara
Liga Pro
- D2-2Universidad Catolica Quito8 November 2026
- W3-0Barcelona SC31 October 2026
- W2-1away to LDU de Quito24 October 2026
- W1-0Independiente del Valle17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Universidad Catolica Quito11 October 2026
What these results say
- Macara went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Macara scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Macara won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 81 | 37 | +44 | 84 |
| 2 | Macara | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 37 | +15 | 67 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente del Valle vs Macara
- 17 October 2026Macara 1–0 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 5 September 2026Independiente del Valle 3–1 MacaraLiga Pro
- 16 May 2026Macara 0–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 12 July 2025Macara 1–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 16 March 2025Independiente del Valle 1–1 MacaraLiga Pro
- 24 November 2024Independiente del Valle 7–0 MacaraLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Independiente del Valle and Macara
Independiente del Valle
GoalsAssists
- C. González111
- D. Reasco94
- M. Perelló84
Macara
GoalsAssists
- F. Posse175
- A. Campana123
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente del Valle a 100% chance of the title and Macara 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente del Valle the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Independiente del Valle against 1.31 for Macara. Independiente del Valle's attack/defence rating is 1.13/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.2 for Macara.
How the model reaches 53% for Independiente del Valle to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Independiente del Valle to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Independiente del Valle's ratings add 5 points and Macara's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Independiente del Valle's ratings51%+5
- Macara's ratings53%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Independiente del Valle at home · Macara away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Independiente del Valle 35, Macara 36.
Independiente del Valle score most often in the 46–60 minute window (16 goals); Macara have let in 10 there.
Macara score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); Independiente del Valle have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Independiente del Valle
- at Barcelona SC25 Nov · Liga Prowin 37%
- at Universidad Catolica Quito29 Nov · Liga Prowin 38%
- at LDU de Quito6 Dec · Liga Prowin 40%
- vs Barcelona SC13 Dec · Liga Prowin 55%
Macara
- vs LDU de Quito29 Nov · Liga Prowin 48%
- at Barcelona SC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 30%
- vs Aucas13 Dec · Liga Prowin 58%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.