Macara
vs
LDU de Quito
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Macara 1–0 LDU de Quito
The model makes it 48% Macara, 28% draw, 24% LDU de Quito — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Macara 1.58, LDU de Quito 0.95.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Macara's rating is built from 76 Ecuador LigaPro matches and LDU de Quito's from 76, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Macara are 2nd on 67 points from 36 games; LDU de Quito are 4th on 54 points from 36 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Macara are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Universidad Catolica Quito.
- LDU de Quito are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Barcelona SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Macara 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 October 2026, ended LDU de Quito 1–2 Macara.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Macara vs LDU de Quito
Has the model earned this number?
Macara at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Macara vs LDU de Quito
Macara
Liga Pro
- D2-2Universidad Catolica Quito8 November 2026
- W3-0Barcelona SC31 October 2026
- W2-1away to LDU de Quito24 October 2026
- W1-0Independiente del Valle17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Universidad Catolica Quito11 October 2026
LDU de Quito
Liga Pro
- D1-1away to Barcelona SC8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Independiente del Valle1 November 2026
- L1-2Macara24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Aucas17 October 2026
- W2-1Barcelona SC11 October 2026
What these results say
- Macara went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Macara scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Macara won 4 of these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Macara | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 37 | +15 | 67 |
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Macara vs LDU de Quito
- 24 October 2026LDU de Quito 1–2 MacaraLiga Pro
- 5 July 2026Macara 1–0 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 1 March 2026LDU de Quito 0–2 MacaraLiga Pro
- 30 August 2025LDU de Quito 1–1 MacaraLiga Pro
- 10 May 2025Macara 0–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 4 August 2024Macara 0–4 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Macara and LDU de Quito
Macara
GoalsAssists
- F. Posse175
- A. Campana123
LDU de Quito
GoalsAssists
- M. Estrada72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Macara the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Macara against 0.95 for LDU de Quito. Macara's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.14 for LDU de Quito.
How the model reaches 48% for Macara to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Macara to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Macara's ratings add 4 points and LDU de Quito's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Macara's ratings47%+4
- LDU de Quito's ratings48%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Macara at home · LDU de Quito away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Macara 36, LDU de Quito 36.
Macara score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); LDU de Quito have let in 6 there.
LDU de Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Macara have let in 10 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Macara
- at Barcelona SC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 30%
- vs Aucas13 Dec · Liga Prowin 57%
LDU de Quito
- vs Independiente del Valle6 Dec · Liga Prowin 33%
- at Universidad Catolica Quito13 Dec · Liga Prowin 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.