Orense SC
vs
Mushuc Runa SC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Orense SC 2–1 Mushuc Runa SC
The model makes it 47% Orense SC, 25% draw, 28% Mushuc Runa SC — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Orense SC 1.82, Mushuc Runa SC 1.28.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Orense SC's rating is built from 76 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Mushuc Runa SC's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Orense SC are 13th on 39 points from 36 games; Mushuc Runa SC are 12th on 43 points from 36 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Orense SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Deportivo Cuenca.
- Mushuc Runa SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Delfin SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Orense SC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 October 2026, ended Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Orense SC.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Orense SC vs Mushuc Runa SC
Has the model earned this number?
Orense SC at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Orense SC vs Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
Liga Pro
- L0-2away to Deportivo Cuenca8 November 2026
- D1-1Tecnico Universitario2 November 2026
- W4-0Delfin SC24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Mushuc Runa SC19 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Cuenca11 October 2026
Mushuc Runa SC
Liga Pro
- W2-1Delfin SC9 November 2026
- L2-3Manta FC3 November 2026
- L0-3away to Tecnico Universitario26 October 2026
- D1-1Orense SC19 October 2026
- L2-3away to Delfin SC9 October 2026
What these results say
- Orense SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Orense SC had two goals or fewer.
- Mushuc Runa SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mushuc Runa SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mushuc Runa SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Orense SC | 36 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Mushuc Runa SC
Chance to win the league · 18% today
From our Liga Pro season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Orense SC vs Mushuc Runa SC
- 19 October 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 20 July 2026Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 19 March 2026Orense SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 14 September 2025Orense SC 3–1 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 17 May 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–5 Orense SCLiga Pro
- 6 March 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Orense SCCONMEBOL Sudamericana
Leading scorers: Orense SC and Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
GoalsAssists
- A. Herrera123
Mushuc Runa SC
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orense SC the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Orense SC against 1.28 for Mushuc Runa SC. Orense SC's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.75 for Mushuc Runa SC.
How the model reaches 47% for Orense SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Orense SC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Orense SC's ratings add 1 point and Mushuc Runa SC's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Orense SC's ratings46%+1
- Mushuc Runa SC's ratings47%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Orense SC at home · Mushuc Runa SC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Orense SC 36, Mushuc Runa SC 36.
Orense SC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Mushuc Runa SC have let in 14 there.
Mushuc Runa SC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Orense SC have let in 10 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Orense SC
- at Delfin SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
- at Tecnico Universitario6 Dec · Liga Prowin 33%
- vs Manta FC13 Dec · Liga Prowin 51%
Mushuc Runa SC
- vs Tecnico Universitario29 Nov · Liga Prowin 48%
- at Manta FC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 33%
- vs Deportivo Cuenca13 Dec · Liga Prowin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.