Relegation Group - 7 · 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca Liga Pro prediction

Estadio Bellavista, Ambato

Our model says: Tecnico Universitario 1–0 Deportivo Cuenca

The model makes it 37% Tecnico Universitario, 30% draw, 33% Deportivo Cuenca — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Tecnico Universitario 1.23, Deportivo Cuenca 1.11.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Tecnico Universitario's rating is built from 72 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Deportivo Cuenca's from 76, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Tecnico Universitario are 15th on 37 points from 36 games; Deportivo Cuenca are 11th on 47 points from 36 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
  • Tecnico Universitario have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Manta FC.
  • Deportivo Cuenca have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Orense SC.
  • Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Cuenca 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 October 2026, ended Deportivo Cuenca 2–1 Tecnico Universitario.

More Ecuador LigaPro predictions

All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca

48%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Tecnico Universitario win Draw Deportivo Cuenca win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 0–110%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 2–07%

Scores read Tecnico Universitario first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Tecnico Universitario at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca

Tecnico Universitario

Liga Pro

  • L1-2Manta FC9 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Orense SC2 November 2026
  • W3-0Mushuc Runa SC26 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Deportivo Cuenca16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Manta FC10 October 2026

Deportivo Cuenca

Liga Pro

  • W2-0Orense SC8 November 2026
  • L1-3away to Delfin SC31 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Manta FC24 October 2026
  • W2-1Tecnico Universitario16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Orense SC11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Tecnico Universitario failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Tecnico Universitario scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Tecnico Universitario conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Deportivo Cuenca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Tecnico Universitario36114213549-1437
11Deportivo Cuenca36138153342-947

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Deportivo Cuenca

Chance to win the league · 80% today

Win 91%
Draw 79%
Defeat 71%

From our Liga Pro season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Tecnico Universitario vs Deportivo Cuenca

  • 16 October 2026Deportivo Cuenca 2–1 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 29 August 2026Tecnico Universitario 3–1 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
  • 2 May 2026Deportivo Cuenca 2–1 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 14 September 2025Tecnico Universitario 0–2 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
  • 17 May 2025Deportivo Cuenca 2–0 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
  • 5 October 2024Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro

How the call on Tecnico Universitario v Deportivo Cuenca has moved

First published on 8 Nov at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 37% / 30% / 33%: the biggest move is Tecnico Universitario's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Tecnico Universitario win37%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Deportivo Cuenca win33%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Tecnico Universitario Deportivo Cuenca
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54
1.71 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.4
1.23 Model expected goals (this match) 1.11

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Tecnico Universitario the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Tecnico Universitario against 1.11 for Deportivo Cuenca. Tecnico Universitario's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.4 for Deportivo Cuenca.

How the model reaches 37% for Tecnico Universitario to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Tecnico Universitario to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Tecnico Universitario's ratings take away 2 points and Deportivo Cuenca's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Tecnico Universitario's ratings40%−2
  5. Deportivo Cuenca's ratings37%−3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Tecnico UniversitarioDeportivo Cuenca
35Matches36
11W 4D 20LRecord13W 8D 15L
34 1.0 per gameGoals scored33 0.9 per game
47 1.3 per gameGoals conceded42 1.2 per game
7 of 35Clean sheets11 of 36
13 of 35Failed to score11 of 36
3 of 3Penalties scored4 of 4
99 2.8 per gameYellow cards67 1.9 per game
9Red cards9
5-4-1 12×Usual shape4-2-3-1 11×

Tecnico Universitario at home · Deportivo Cuenca away

17Played18
7W 2D 8LRecord6W 3D 9L
22–22Goals for – against13–22
4 of 17Clean sheets7 of 18

League matches only, Liga Pro, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Liga Pro matches this season: Tecnico Universitario 35, Deportivo Cuenca 36.

Tecnico Universitario scored 4410773
Deportivo Cuenca conceded 3388119

Tecnico Universitario score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Deportivo Cuenca have let in 8 there.

Deportivo Cuenca scored 545484
Tecnico Universitario conceded 4368711

Deportivo Cuenca score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Tecnico Universitario have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Tecnico Universitario

  • at Mushuc Runa SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 26%
  • vs Orense SC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 39%
  • at Delfin SC13 Dec · Liga Prowin 27%

Deportivo Cuenca

  • vs Manta FC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 49%
  • vs Delfin SC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 46%
  • at Mushuc Runa SC13 Dec · Liga Prowin 30%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.