Mushuc Runa SC
vs
Tecnico Universitario
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Tecnico Universitario
The model makes it 48% Mushuc Runa SC, 26% draw, 26% Tecnico Universitario — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Mushuc Runa SC 1.75, Tecnico Universitario 1.14.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Mushuc Runa SC's rating is built from 72 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Tecnico Universitario's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Mushuc Runa SC are 12th on 43 points from 36 games; Tecnico Universitario are 15th on 37 points from 36 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Mushuc Runa SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Delfin SC.
- Tecnico Universitario have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Manta FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Mushuc Runa SC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 October 2026, ended Tecnico Universitario 3–0 Mushuc Runa SC.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mushuc Runa SC vs Tecnico Universitario
Has the model earned this number?
Mushuc Runa SC at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mushuc Runa SC vs Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
Liga Pro
- W2-1Delfin SC9 November 2026
- L2-3Manta FC3 November 2026
- L0-3away to Tecnico Universitario26 October 2026
- D1-1Orense SC19 October 2026
- L2-3away to Delfin SC9 October 2026
Tecnico Universitario
Liga Pro
- L1-2Manta FC9 November 2026
- D1-1away to Orense SC2 November 2026
- W3-0Mushuc Runa SC26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Deportivo Cuenca16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Manta FC10 October 2026
What these results say
- Mushuc Runa SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Mushuc Runa SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mushuc Runa SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tecnico Universitario failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tecnico Universitario scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Tecnico Universitario conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mushuc Runa SC | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 43 |
| 15 | Tecnico Universitario | 36 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mushuc Runa SC vs Tecnico Universitario
- 26 October 2026Tecnico Universitario 3–0 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 10 August 2026Tecnico Universitario 0–3 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 18 April 2026Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
- 22 November 2025Mushuc Runa SC 1–0 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
- 1 November 2025Tecnico Universitario 0–0 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
- 27 July 2025Mushuc Runa SC 0–1 Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mushuc Runa SC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Mushuc Runa SC against 1.14 for Tecnico Universitario. Mushuc Runa SC's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.71 for Tecnico Universitario.
How the model reaches 48% for Mushuc Runa SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mushuc Runa SC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Mushuc Runa SC's ratings add 3 points and Tecnico Universitario's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Mushuc Runa SC's ratings47%+3
- Tecnico Universitario's ratings48%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Mushuc Runa SC at home · Tecnico Universitario away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Mushuc Runa SC 36, Tecnico Universitario 36.
Mushuc Runa SC score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Tecnico Universitario have let in 9 there.
Tecnico Universitario score most often in the 31–45 minute window (10 goals); Mushuc Runa SC have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Mushuc Runa SC
- at Manta FC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 33%
- vs Deportivo Cuenca13 Dec · Liga Prowin 42%
Tecnico Universitario
- vs Orense SC6 Dec · Liga Prowin 39%
- at Delfin SC13 Dec · Liga Prowin 27%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.