Universidad Catolica Quito
vs
Barcelona SC
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Universidad Catolica Quito 1–0 Barcelona SC
The model makes it 43% Universidad Catolica Quito, 28% draw, 29% Barcelona SC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Universidad Catolica Quito 1.53, Barcelona SC 1.14.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Universidad Catolica Quito's rating is built from 76 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Barcelona SC's from 75, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Universidad Catolica Quito are 3rd on 54 points from 36 games; Barcelona SC are bottom on 49 points from 35 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Universidad Catolica Quito have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Macara.
- Barcelona SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to LDU de Quito.
- Last 6 meetings: Universidad Catolica Quito 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 18 October 2026, ended Barcelona SC 1–1 Universidad Catolica Quito.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Universidad Catolica Quito vs Barcelona SC
Has the model earned this number?
Universidad Catolica Quito at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Universidad Catolica Quito vs Barcelona SC
Universidad Catolica Quito
Liga Pro
- D2-2away to Macara8 November 2026
- L1-2Aucas1 November 2026
- D0-0away to Independiente del Valle23 October 2026
- D1-1away to Barcelona SC18 October 2026
- L0-1Macara11 October 2026
Barcelona SC
Liga Pro
- D1-1LDU de Quito8 November 2026
- L0-3away to Macara31 October 2026
- W4-0away to Aucas25 October 2026
- D1-1Universidad Catolica Quito18 October 2026
- L1-2away to LDU de Quito11 October 2026
What these results say
- Universidad Catolica Quito did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Quito conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barcelona SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Universidad Catolica Quito | 36 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 56 | 35 | +21 | 54 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 39 | 32 | +7 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica Quito vs Barcelona SC
- 18 October 2026Barcelona SC 1–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 22 July 2026Universidad Catolica Quito 2–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 22 March 2026Barcelona SC 1–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 7 December 2025Barcelona SC 1–1 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
- 2 November 2025Universidad Catolica Quito 1–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 31 August 2025Barcelona SC 2–3 Universidad Catolica QuitoLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica Quito and Barcelona SC
Universidad Catolica Quito
GoalsAssists
- J. Fajardo133
- M. Alonso84
Barcelona SC
GoalsAssists
- D. Benedetto92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universidad Catolica Quito the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Universidad Catolica Quito against 1.14 for Barcelona SC. Universidad Catolica Quito's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.16 for Barcelona SC.
How the model reaches 43% for Universidad Catolica Quito to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Universidad Catolica Quito to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Universidad Catolica Quito's ratings change nothing and Barcelona SC's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Universidad Catolica Quito's ratings44%±0
- Barcelona SC's ratings43%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Universidad Catolica Quito at home · Barcelona SC away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Universidad Catolica Quito 36, Barcelona SC 35.
Universidad Catolica Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (16 goals); Barcelona SC have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Universidad Catolica Quito
- vs Independiente del Valle29 Nov · Liga Prowin 37%
- at Aucas6 Dec · Liga Prowin 38%
- vs LDU de Quito13 Dec · Liga Prowin 46%
Barcelona SC
- vs Independiente del Valle25 Nov · Liga Prowin 37%
- vs Aucas29 Nov · Liga Prowin 55%
- vs Macara6 Dec · Liga Prowin 42%
- at Independiente del Valle13 Dec · Liga Prowin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.