Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
Ludogorets
First League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Ludogorets
The model makes it 17% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 29% draw, 54% Ludogorets — fair odds of 5.88, 3.45 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (18%).
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.59, Ludogorets 1.48.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Ludogorets are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Lokomotiv Plovdiv's rating is built from 47 Bulgarian First League matches and Ludogorets's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 665 matches.
Key facts
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th on 8 points from 11 games; Ludogorets are 3rd on 26 points from 10 games — First League.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Lokomotiv Sofia.
- Ludogorets are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-0 win at home to Arda Kardzhali.
- Last 6 meetings: Ludogorets 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Ludogorets 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 54% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
First League
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia10 October 2026
- D1-1CSKA Sofia20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Botev Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W1-0Cherno More Varna6 September 2026
- L0-2away to CSKA 194828 August 2026
Ludogorets
First League
- W5-0Arda Kardzhali12 October 2026
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna30 August 2026
- D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lokomotiv Plovdiv had two goals or fewer.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets
- 18 July 2026Ludogorets 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 29 May 2026Ludogorets 0–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 2 March 2026Ludogorets 1–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 14 September 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 LudogoretsFirst League
- 30 March 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 LudogoretsFirst League
- 6 October 2024Ludogorets 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
A clear gap in the ratings
Lokomotiv Plovdiv carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.74 for Ludogorets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.59 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.48 for Ludogorets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv rate 0.40 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ludogorets rate 0.84 and 1.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv a 0% chance of the title and Ludogorets 21.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv against 1.48 for Ludogorets. Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.4/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.06 for Ludogorets.
How the model reaches 54% for Ludogorets to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Ludogorets to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Lokomotiv Plovdiv's ratings add 30 points and Ludogorets's ratings take away 7 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage31%−4
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv's ratings61%+30
- Ludogorets's ratings54%−7
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home · Ludogorets away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 11, Ludogorets 10.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Ludogorets have let in 1 there.
Ludogorets score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Lokomotiv Plovdiv have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- at Septemvri Sofia21 Nov · First Leaguewin 35%
- vs Spartak Varna28 Nov · First Leaguewin 38%
- vs Levski Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 14%
Ludogorets
- vs Dunav Ruse21 Nov · First Leaguewin 70%
- at Botev Vratsa28 Nov · First Leaguewin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.