30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag UEFA Europa League prediction & result

National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
Full time0 – 0

Final score: CSKA Sofia 0-0 Qarabag.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% CSKA Sofia, 26% draw, 33% Qarabag — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CSKA Sofia at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA Sofia4%Draw92%Qarabag4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Bruno Jordão
39'
Leandro Godoy
48'
50'
Marko Janković
55'
Bence Várkonyi
70'
🔁Kady Borgesout: R. Cephas
🔁B. Jordaoout: J. Eto'o
71'
James Eto'o
75'
82'
🔁E. Cafarquliyevout: B. Langa
82'
🔁O. Kashchukout: J. Mouaddib
82'
🔁B. Huseynovout: C. Makreckis
🔁L. Godoyout: J. Zwarts
89'
90+2'
🔁A. Zoubirout: J. Montiel
Ángelo Martino
95'
🔁A. Martinoout: M. Brahimi
99'
100'
🔁Z. Sawoout: M. Qurbanly
Teodor Ivanov
105+3'
107'
Joni Montiel
Joël Zwarts
112'

Match stats — CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

42%Possession58%
3On target5
2Corners10

Line-ups

CSKA Sofia 4-1-4-1
  • 21F. Lapoukhov
  • 2PastorD
  • 14T. IvanovD
  • 32F. RodriguezD
  • 17A. MartinoD
  • 5J. GbaminD
  • 7M. EbongM
  • 8S. SensiM
  • 6B. JordaoM
  • 28I. PittasF
  • 9L. GodoyF
Substitutes
  • 25D. EvtimovG
  • 10J. ZwartsF
  • 11M. BrahimiM
  • 19A. YordanovD
  • 30P. PanayotovM
  • 34V. KaymakanovM
  • 38Leo PereiraM
  • 77A. PiedrahitaM
  • 80G. B. ChorbadzhiyskiM
Coach: Hristo Yanev
Qarabag 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. KochalskiG
  • 2Matheus SilvaD
  • 55B. HuseynovD
  • 4B. Varkonyi
  • 44E. CafarquliyevD
  • 35Pedro BicalhoM
  • 8M. JankovicM
  • 21O. KashchukM
  • 20Kady BorgesM
  • 10A. Zoubir
  • 11Z. SawoF
Substitutes
  • 1S. MahammadaliyevG
  • 23M. ZlomislicG
  • 5B. LangaD
  • 7J. MouaddibM
  • 9J. MontielM
  • 13B. MustafazadaD
  • 22M. QurbanlyF
  • 25C. MakreckisM
  • 29R. CephasF
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

CSKA Sofia

  • W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
  • D0-0away to Qarabag23 July 2026
  • D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026

Qarabag

  • D0-0CSKA Sofia23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

  • 30 July 2026CSKA Sofia 0–0 QarabagUEFA Europa League
  • 23 July 2026Qarabag 0–0 CSKA SofiaUEFA Europa League
  • 4 July 2023CSKA Sofia 0–1 QarabagFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 July 2021CSKA Sofia 0–1 QarabagFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: CSKA Sofia and Qarabag

CSKA Sofia

  • Bruno Jordão1 goals

Qarabag

  • R. Almeyda1 goals
  • Pedro Bicalho1 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.