UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round · 30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia

The model makes it 37% CSKA Sofia, 26% draw, 37% Qarabag — fair odds of 2.70, 3.85 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.44, Qarabag 1.45.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Low.

Model insights

59%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 8%2-1 8%

Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

  • 30 July 2026CSKA Sofia 0–0 QarabagUEFA Europa League
  • 23 July 2026Qarabag 0–0 CSKA SofiaUEFA Europa League
  • 4 July 2023CSKA Sofia 0–1 QarabagFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 July 2021CSKA Sofia 0–1 QarabagFriendlies Clubs
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for CSKA Sofia against 1.45 for Qarabag. CSKA Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.39/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.95 for Qarabag.