30 July 2026, 18:00 UTC

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag UEFA Europa League prediction & result

National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
Full time0 – 0

Final score: CSKA Sofia 0-0 Qarabag.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% CSKA Sofia, 26% draw, 33% Qarabag — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Qarabag 0–0 CSKA Sofia (23 Jul) →

CSKA Sofia went through on penalties, after 0–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CSKA Sofia at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CSKA Sofia4%Draw92%Qarabag4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Bruno Jordão
39'
Leandro Godoy
48'
50'
Marko Janković
55'
Bence Várkonyi
70'
🔁Kady Borgesout: R. Cephas
🔁B. Jordaoout: J. Eto'o
71'
James Eto'o
75'
82'
🔁E. Cafarquliyevout: B. Langa
82'
🔁O. Kashchukout: J. Mouaddib
82'
🔁B. Huseynovout: C. Makreckis
🔁L. Godoyout: J. Zwarts
89'
90+2'
🔁A. Zoubirout: J. Montiel
Ángelo Martino
95'
🔁A. Martinoout: M. Brahimi
99'
100'
🔁Z. Sawoout: M. Qurbanly
Teodor Ivanov
105+3'
107'
Joni Montiel
Joël Zwarts
112'

Match stats — CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

42%Possession58%
3On target5
2Corners10

Line-ups

CSKA Sofia 4-1-4-1
  • 21F. Lapoukhov
  • 2PastorD
  • 14T. IvanovD
  • 32F. RodriguezD
  • 17A. MartinoD
  • 5J. GbaminD
  • 7M. EbongM
  • 8S. SensiM
  • 6B. JordaoM
  • 28I. PittasF
  • 9L. GodoyF
Substitutes
  • 25D. EvtimovG
  • 10J. ZwartsF
  • 11M. BrahimiM
  • 19A. YordanovD
  • 30P. PanayotovM
  • 34V. KaymakanovM
  • 38Leo PereiraM
  • 77A. PiedrahitaM
  • 80G. B. ChorbadzhiyskiM
Coach: Hristo Yanev
Qarabag 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. KochalskiG
  • 2Matheus SilvaD
  • 55B. HuseynovD
  • 4B. Varkonyi
  • 44E. CafarquliyevD
  • 35Pedro BicalhoM
  • 8M. JankovicM
  • 21O. KashchukM
  • 20Kady BorgesM
  • 10A. Zoubir
  • 11Z. SawoF
Substitutes
  • 1S. MahammadaliyevG
  • 23M. ZlomislicG
  • 5B. LangaD
  • 7J. MouaddibM
  • 9J. MontielM
  • 13B. MustafazadaD
  • 22M. QurbanlyF
  • 25C. MakreckisM
  • 29R. CephasF
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

CSKA Sofia

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
  • D0-0away to Qarabag23 July 2026
  • D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026

Qarabag

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0CSKA Sofia23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

  • 23 July 2026Qarabag 0–0 CSKA SofiaUEFA Europa League
  • 4 July 2023CSKA Sofia 0–1 QarabagFriendlies Clubs
  • 7 July 2021CSKA Sofia 0–1 QarabagFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

CSKA Sofia and Qarabag drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for CSKA Sofia at 41% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.