30 July 2026, 14:00 UTC

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay
Full time1 – 1

Final score: FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Panevėžys.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% FK Tobol Kostanay, 19% draw, 16% Panevėžys — fair odds of 1.54, 5.26 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay (23 Jul) →

FK Tobol Kostanay went through on penalties, after 2–2 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Tobol Kostanay at 65% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 410 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.3%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Myakish
31'
33'
⚽N. Petkeviciusassist: I. Asante
34'
M. Ramanauskas
35'
🔁I. Asanteout: R. Rasimavicius
⚽A. Talalassist: I. Chesnokov
45+3'
52'
V. Paulauskas
57'
K. Asamoah
🔁U. Milovanovicout: L. Guerra
63'
65'
🔁V. Paulauskasout: O. Kurtsev
65'
🔁N. Petkeviciusout: M. Bacanin
🔁M. Myakishout: A. Cisse
77'
🔁A. Borsicout: R. Asrankulov
77'
84'
T. Korkeakunnas
84'
🔁P. Bizozaout: J. Bopesu
84'
🔁K. Asamoahout: M. van den Bos
L. Guerra
90'
🔁A. Zuevout: D. Zhumat
98'
106'
🔁D. Balsysout: S. Kouadio
🔁R. Senhadjiout: N. Cavnic
106'
🔁N. Zhagorovout: E. Musaev
115'
118'
M. van den Bos
⚽L. Guerra (pen)
120+1'
120+1'
⚽R. Rasimavicius (pen)
⚽N. Cavnic (pen)
120+2'
120+2'
⚽M. Ramanauskas (pen)
⚽A. Tagybergen (pen)
120+3'
120+3'
⚽O. Kurtsev (pen)
⚽P. Ndiaye (pen)
120+4'
120+4'
⚽S. Keita (pen)
⚽R. Asrankulov (pen)
120+5'
120+5'
⚽M. Bacanin (pen)

Line-ups

FK Tobol Kostanay 4-2-3-1
  • 44Danil UstimenkoG
  • 21Nauryzbek ZhagorovM
  • 72Rayan SenhadjiD
  • 5Pape Alioune NdiayeD
  • 25Antonio BoršićD
  • 8Askhat TagybergenM
  • 6Maksim MyakishM
  • 10Islam ChesnokovM
  • 14Amine TalalM
  • 17Aleksander ZuevM
  • 18Uroš MilovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 30Luis GuerraM
  • 3Roman AsrankulovD
  • 13Abdoulaye CisseM
  • 19Dauren ZhumatF
  • 4Nemanja CavnićD
  • 56Emin MussayevM
  • 1Sultan BusurmanovG
  • 35Yuriy MelikhovG
  • 22Aleksandr MarochkinD
Coach: Miroslav Romashchenko
Panevėžys 4-3-3
  • 1Vytautas ČerniauskasG
  • 28Ernestas BurdzilauskasF
  • 13Strahinja KerkezD
  • 33Seydina KeitaD
  • 66Dovydas BalsysD
  • 77Parfait BizozaM
  • 6Matas RamanauskasM
  • 34Isaac AsanteM
  • 27Kwadwo AsamoahM
  • 24Nauris PetkevičiusF
  • 79Valdas PaulauskasM
Substitutes
  • 32Rokas RasimaviciusD
  • 17Oleksandr KurtsevM
  • 16Marko BačaninF
  • 5Miano van den BosD
  • 95Joël BopesuD
  • 8Salomon KouadioM
  • 12Liudvikas ValiusG
  • 22Arijus BrazinskasG
  • 4Rayen MzoughiD
Coach: Toni Korkeakunnas

Form going into FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys

FK Tobol Kostanay

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Panevėžys23 July 2026

Panevėžys

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1FK Tobol Kostanay23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys

  • 23 July 2026Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol KostanayUEFA Europa Conference League

The result against the call

FK Tobol Kostanay and Panevėžys drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FK Tobol Kostanay at 65% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.