30 July 2026, 14:00 UTC

FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Centralnyj Stadion, Kostanay
Full time1 – 1

Final score: FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Panevėžys.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% FK Tobol Kostanay, 19% draw, 16% Panevėžys — fair odds of 1.54, 5.26 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Tobol Kostanay at 65% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Myakish
31'
33'
⚽N. Petkeviciusassist: I. Asante
34'
M. Ramanauskas
35'
🔁I. Asanteout: R. Rasimavicius
⚽A. Talalassist: I. Chesnokov
45+3'
52'
V. Paulauskas
57'
K. Asamoah
🔁U. Milovanovicout: L. Guerra
63'
65'
🔁V. Paulauskasout: O. Kurtsev
65'
🔁N. Petkeviciusout: M. Bacanin
🔁M. Myakishout: A. Cisse
77'
🔁A. Borsicout: R. Asrankulov
77'
84'
T. Korkeakunnas
84'
🔁P. Bizozaout: J. Bopesu
84'
🔁K. Asamoahout: M. van den Bos
L. Guerra
90'
🔁A. Zuevout: D. Zhumat
98'
106'
🔁D. Balsysout: S. Kouadio
🔁R. Senhadjiout: N. Cavnic
106'
🔁N. Zhagorovout: E. Musaev
115'
118'
M. van den Bos
⚽L. Guerra (pen)
120+1'
120+1'
⚽R. Rasimavicius (pen)
⚽N. Cavnic (pen)
120+2'
120+2'
⚽M. Ramanauskas (pen)
⚽A. Tagybergen (pen)
120+3'
120+3'
⚽O. Kurtsev (pen)
⚽P. Ndiaye (pen)
120+4'
120+4'
⚽S. Keita (pen)
⚽R. Asrankulov (pen)
120+5'
120+5'
⚽M. Bacanin (pen)

Line-ups

FK Tobol Kostanay 4-2-3-1
  • 44Danil UstimenkoG
  • 21Nauryzbek ZhagorovM
  • 72Rayan SenhadjiD
  • 5Pape Alioune NdiayeD
  • 25Antonio BoršićD
  • 8Askhat TagybergenM
  • 6Maksim MyakishM
  • 10Islam ChesnokovM
  • 14Amine TalalM
  • 17Aleksander ZuevM
  • 18Uroš MilovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 30Luis GuerraM
  • 3Roman AsrankulovD
  • 13Abdoulaye CisseM
  • 19Dauren ZhumatF
  • 4Nemanja CavnićD
  • 56Emin MussayevM
  • 1Sultan BusurmanovG
  • 35Yuriy MelikhovG
  • 22Aleksandr MarochkinD
Coach: Miroslav Romashchenko
Panevėžys 4-3-3
  • 1Vytautas ČerniauskasG
  • 28Ernestas BurdzilauskasF
  • 13Strahinja KerkezD
  • 33Seydina KeitaD
  • 66Dovydas BalsysD
  • 77Parfait BizozaM
  • 6Matas RamanauskasM
  • 34Isaac AsanteM
  • 27Kwadwo AsamoahM
  • 24Nauris PetkevičiusF
  • 79Valdas PaulauskasM
Substitutes
  • 32Rokas RasimaviciusD
  • 17Oleksandr KurtsevM
  • 16Marko BačaninF
  • 5Miano van den BosD
  • 95Joël BopesuD
  • 8Salomon KouadioM
  • 12Liudvikas ValiusG
  • 22Arijus BrazinskasG
  • 4Rayen MzoughiD
Coach: Toni Korkeakunnas

Form going into FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys

FK Tobol Kostanay

  • D1-1away to Panevėžys23 July 2026

Panevėžys

  • D1-1FK Tobol Kostanay23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys

  • 30 July 2026FK Tobol Kostanay 1–1 PanevėžysUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol KostanayUEFA Europa Conference League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.