FK Tobol Kostanay
vs
Panevėžys
Final score: FK Tobol Kostanay 1-1 Panevėžys.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% FK Tobol Kostanay, 19% draw, 15% Panevėžys — fair odds of 1.52, 5.26 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: FK Tobol Kostanay 2.46, Panevėžys 1.11.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Match stats: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys
Goals: N. Petkevicius 33' for Panevėžys, A. Talal 45+3' for FK Tobol Kostanay, L. Guerra (penalty) 120+1' for FK Tobol Kostanay, R. Rasimavicius (penalty) 120+1' for Panevėžys, N. Cavnic (penalty) 120+2' for FK Tobol Kostanay, M. Ramanauskas (penalty) 120+2' for Panevėžys, A. Tagybergen (penalty) 120+3' for FK Tobol Kostanay, O. Kurtsev (penalty) 120+3' for Panevėžys, P. Ndiaye (penalty) 120+4' for FK Tobol Kostanay, S. Keita (penalty) 120+4' for Panevėžys, R. Asrankulov (penalty) 120+5' for FK Tobol Kostanay, M. Bacanin (penalty) 120+5' for Panevėžys.
Head-to-head: FK Tobol Kostanay vs Panevėžys
- 30 July 2026FK Tobol Kostanay 1–1 PanevėžysUEFA Europa Conference League
- 23 July 2026Panevėžys 1–1 FK Tobol KostanayUEFA Europa Conference League
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Tobol Kostanay the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.46 expected goals for FK Tobol Kostanay against 1.11 for Panevėžys. FK Tobol Kostanay's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.6 for Panevėžys.