30 July 2026, 18:30 UTC

Ferencvarosi TC vs Twente UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Groupama Arena, Budapest
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Ferencvarosi TC 2-2 Twente.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Ferencvarosi TC, 27% draw, 33% Twente — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ferencvarosi TC at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ferencvarosi TC3%Draw92%Twente5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽T. Raemaekers (pen)
22'
P. Rommens
36'
46'
🔁K. Hlynssonout: S. Lammers
46'
🔁A. Adelgaardout: D. Weidmann
⚽L. Joseph
50'
Cadu
56'
56'
T. van den Belt
61'
S. Lemkin
63'
🔁T. van den Beltout: Y. Taha
72'
🔁D. Rotsout: M. Pjaca
72'
🔁S. Orjasaeterout: L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
🔁C. O'Dowdaout: Dele
73'
🔁L. Josephout: N. Zohore
78'
82'
⚽W. Weghorst
86'
⚽L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
88'
Y. Taha
🔁Caduout: J. Levi
88'

Line-ups

Ferencvarosi TC 4-3-3
  • 90D. DibuszG
  • 14A. OsvathM
  • 4M. GomezD
  • 28T. RaemaekersD
  • 20CaduM
  • 88P. RommensM
  • 36G. KanichowskyM
  • 17M. CorbuM
  • 16K. ZachariassenM
  • 75L. JosephF
  • 47C. O'DowdaM
Substitutes
  • 1A. VargaG
  • 7E. AcolatseM
  • 15D. ArzaniM
  • 11DeleF
  • 54O. Nagy
  • 30Z. GruberF
  • 76K. LisztesF
  • 21E. BotkaD
  • 10J. LeviM
Coach: Balazs Borbely
Twente 4-3-3
  • 1L. UnnerstallG
  • 28B. van RooijD
  • 23S. LemkinD
  • 43R. NijstadD
  • 29A. AdelgaardD
  • 6R. ZerroukiM
  • 14K. HlynssonM
  • 20T. van den BeltM
  • 11D. RotsM
  • 9W. WeghorstF
  • 27S. OrjasaeterM
Substitutes
  • 31Y. GerritsenG
  • 22R. PasveerG
  • 10S. LammersF
  • 19Y. TahaM
  • 42D. WeidmannM
  • 12G. PeixotoD
  • 7M. PjacaF
  • 3R. PropperD
  • 4M. KjoloM
Coach: John van den Brom

Form going into Ferencvarosi TC vs Twente

Ferencvarosi TC

  • L2-4away to Paks26 July 2026
  • W2-1away to Twente23 July 2026

Twente

  • L1-2Ferencvarosi TC23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ferencvarosi TC and Twente in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
5Ferencvarosi TCNB I6321107+311
4TwenteEredivisie6411125+713

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: NB I · Eredivisie

Head-to-head: Ferencvarosi TC vs Twente

  • 23 July 2026Twente 1–2 Ferencvarosi TCUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Ferencvarosi TC and Twente

Ferencvarosi TC

  • B. Yusuf2 goals1 assists

Twente

  • W. Weghorst3 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.