30 July 2026, 17:45 UTC

PAOK vs Dynamo Kyiv UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Full time2 – 0

Final score: PAOK 2-0 Dynamo Kyiv.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% PAOK, 20% draw, 28% Dynamo Kyiv — fair odds of 1.92, 5.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PAOK at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAOK99%Draw1%Dynamo Kyiv0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

P. Hatzidiakos
35'
⚽G. Konstanteliasassist: Jogo
45'
⚽G. Konstanteliasassist: G. Michailidis
48'
50'
M. Ponomarenko
67'
🔁N. Voloshynout: A. Yarmolenko
67'
🔁V. Buyalskyyout: M. Shaparenko
🔁Taisonout: D. Chatsidis
69'
🔁A. Zivkovicout: A. Baba
76'
🔁P. Hatzidiakosout: A. Elustondo
76'
🔁C. Zafeirisout: M. Camara
76'
78'
M. Shaparenko
80'
🔁B. Redushkoout: V. Kabaev
🔁G. Konstanteliasout: D. Pelkas
83'
86'
🔁A. Thiareout: K. Bilovar
86'
🔁J. Lonwijkout: P. Mounguengue

Line-ups

PAOK 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PavlenkaG
  • 3J. KennyD
  • 4P. HatzidiakosD
  • 5G. MichailidisD
  • 18JogoD
  • 20C. ZafeirisM
  • 7B. SantamariaM
  • 14A. ZivkovicM
  • 65G. KonstanteliasM
  • 11TaisonM
  • 56A. MythouF
Substitutes
  • 99A. TsiftsisG
  • 41D. MonastirlisG
  • 21A. BabaD
  • 6A. ElustondoD
  • 71L. LyratzisD
  • 25K. ThymianisD
  • 97D. BataoulasD
  • 52D. ChatsidisM
  • 10D. PelkasM
Coach: Alessio Lisci
Dynamo Kyiv 4-2-3-1
  • 71V. SurkisG
  • 5O. SychD
  • 94T. KedzioraD
  • 66A. ThiareD
  • 32T. MykhavkoD
  • 6V. BrazhkoM
  • 21J. LonwijkM
  • 9N. VoloshynM
  • 29V. BuyalskyyM
  • 70B. RedushkoM
  • 11M. PonomarenkoF
Substitutes
  • 43I. OlkhovyiG
  • 35R. NeshcheretG
  • 7A. YarmolenkoM
  • 8O. PikhalyonokM
  • 22V. KabaevM
  • 10M. ShaparenkoM
  • 40K. BilovarD
  • 15V. RubchynskyiM
  • 39E. GuerreroF
Coach: Igor Kostyuk

Form going into PAOK vs Dynamo Kyiv

PAOK

  • W3-2away to Dynamo Kyiv23 July 2026

Dynamo Kyiv

  • L2-3PAOK23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: PAOK vs Dynamo Kyiv

  • 30 July 2026PAOK 0–0 Dynamo KyivUEFA Europa League
  • 23 July 2026Dynamo Kyiv 2–3 PAOKUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: PAOK and Dynamo Kyiv

PAOK

  • D. Pelkas3 goals
  • A. Živković2 goals2 assists

Dynamo Kyiv

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.